Why Convergence Stopped: 1914-1950

自1950年以来，美国工业和生活水平的主导地位已经逐渐消失。这一事实意味着经济趋同，日本、德国以及现在的一些新兴经济体的追赶就是明证。直到最近，经济学家很少注意到贸易、移民和国际投资的全球化力量对这种趋同的贡献。此外，他们通常将趋同指标限制在每工作小时GDP，而不包括工资和地租等要素价格。这个项目试图弥补这些缺陷。经合组织国家经历了两个融合的黄金时代：1850-1914年和1950-1994年。美国国家科学基金会之前由首席研究员资助的研究表明，直到1914年，大规模移民和贸易的全球化力量导致了大部分趋同。研究还表明，在1914年至1950年期间，当美国击退挑战者时，趋同停止了。这个项目的目的是确定为什么在1914年之前的开放型世界经济内爆为自给自足的那40年里，融合停止了。特别是，对贸易和移民的政策限制发挥了什么作用？调查结果应有助于指导评估自1950年以来退出自给自足和推进全球一体化对趋同所作贡献的任何努力。它还将有助于确定似乎潜伏在下个世纪地平线上的非全球化力量。

American industrial and living standard dominance has eroded away since 1950. This fact implies economic convergence as evidenced by the catching up of Japan, Germany, and now a number of newly emerging economies. Until recently, economists paid very little attention to the contribution which the globalization forces of trade, migration, and international investment have made to this convergence. Furthermore, they typically limited their convergence measures to GDP per worker-hour, while excluding factor prices like wages and land rents. This project seeks to repair those shortcomings. There have been two golden ages of convergence for the OECD countries: 1850-1914 and 1950-1994. Previous NSF funded research by the principal investigator has shown that the globalization forces of mass migration and trade caused most the convergence up to 1914. It was also shown that convergence stopped between 1914 and 1950, while America fended off the challengers. The purpose of this project is to determine why convergence stopped during those four decades when the pre-1914 open world economy imploded into autarky. In particular, what role did policy restrictions on trade and migration play? The findings should help guide any effort to assess the contribution to convergence which the retreat from autarky and the advance to global integration has made since 1950. It will also help identify the forces of de- globalization which seem to be lurking on the horizon of the next century.