Why Convergence Stopped: 1914-1950

自1950年以来，美国在工业和生活水平方面的主导地位已经消失。 这一事实意味着日本、德国以及一些新兴经济体的追赶证明了经济趋同。 直到最近，经济学家们还很少关注贸易、移民和国际投资等全球化力量对这种趋同的贡献。 此外，他们通常将收敛措施限制在每工作小时的GDP上，而不包括工资和土地租金等要素价格。 本项目旨在弥补这些缺陷。 经合组织国家有两个趋同的黄金时期：1850-1914年和1950-1994年。 美国国家科学基金会（NSF）先前资助的主要研究者的研究表明，大规模移民和贸易的全球化力量导致了1914年之前的大部分趋同。 研究还表明，在1914年至1950年期间，趋同停止了，而美国则击退了挑战者。 这个项目的目的是确定为什么在1914年前的开放世界经济陷入自给自足的四十年里，趋同停止了。 特别是，对贸易和移民的政策限制发挥了什么作用？ 研究结果应有助于指导任何评估自1950年以来从自给自足的撤退和全球一体化的推进对趋同的贡献的努力。 它还将有助于确定似乎潜伏在下一个世纪地平线上的去全球化力量。

American industrial and living standard dominance has eroded away since 1950. This fact implies economic convergence as evidenced by the catching up of Japan, Germany, and now a number of newly emerging economies. Until recently, economists paid very little attention to the contribution which the globalization forces of trade, migration, and international investment have made to this convergence. Furthermore, they typically limited their convergence measures to GDP per worker-hour, while excluding factor prices like wages and land rents. This project seeks to repair those shortcomings. There have been two golden ages of convergence for the OECD countries: 1850-1914 and 1950-1994. Previous NSF funded research by the principal investigator has shown that the globalization forces of mass migration and trade caused most the convergence up to 1914. It was also shown that convergence stopped between 1914 and 1950, while America fended off the challengers. The purpose of this project is to determine why convergence stopped during those four decades when the pre-1914 open world economy imploded into autarky. In particular, what role did policy restrictions on trade and migration play? The findings should help guide any effort to assess the contribution to convergence which the retreat from autarky and the advance to global integration has made since 1950. It will also help identify the forces of de- globalization which seem to be lurking on the horizon of the next century.