Research on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change

Schlesinger, Michael E. University of Illinois题目：Research on greenhouse - gas - induced Climate Change本项目将重点研究：末次冰期-间冰期旋回。本研究的目的是模拟和了解冰期-间冰期旋回。在他成功模拟了115kya至105kya的冰川开始期之后，PI将继续使用他的2层大气环流/混合层-海洋/冰盖/软流层（AO/ISA）模式，首先在时间上完善冰川开始期的模拟，其次继续从105kya到现在的模拟。气候敏感性的估计，T2x。本研究的目的是获得对气候系统T2x敏感性的最佳估计。PI将通过模拟皮纳图博火山爆发后两年的气溶胶浓度、光学深度、辐射强迫和气候的地理分布来做到这一点。他将把他的24层平流层/对流层GC/PC-气溶胶模型与他的12层海洋GC模型结合起来。他将进行包括喷发在内的5次实验模拟和不包括喷发在内的5次控制模拟；每个模拟的成员只在大气初始条件上有所不同。通过这种方式，PI将能够估计自然内部变率对后皮纳图博温度变化的贡献。他将比较模拟和观察到的皮纳图博事件后的温度变化，以确定T2x。人为硫酸盐气溶胶引起的气候变化的综合评估。本研究的目的是模拟5个区域人为硫酸盐气溶胶源的辐射强迫单独和集体引起的平衡气候变化，以供综合评估模式使用。为此，PI将使用他的7层对流层GC/MLO模型进行6次平衡气候变化模拟。这项研究很重要，因为它试图增加关于气候过程的新知识，目标是改进气候预测。

Abstract ATM-9522681 Schlesinger, Michael E. University of Illinois Title: Research on Greenhouse-Gases-Induced Climate Change This project will focus on the following studies: The Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle. The objective of this research is to simulate and understand the Glacial-Interglacial Cycle. Following his success in simulating glacial onset from 115kya to 105kya, the PI will continue to use his 2-layer atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer-ocean/ice-sheet/asthenosphere (AO/ISA) model, first to refine the onset-simulation temporally, and second to continue the simulation from 105kya to the present. Estimation of the Climate Sensitivity, T2x. The objective of this research is to obtain the best-possible estimate of the sensitivity of the climate system, T2x. The PI will do this by simulating the geographical distributions of aerosol concentrations, optical depths, radiative forcing and climate for two years following the Pinatubo eruption. He will incorporate into his 24-layer stratospheric/tropospheric GC/PC- aerosol model with his 12-layer ocean GC model. He will perform 5 experiment simulations including the eruption, and 5 control simulations excluding it; the members of each simulation set differing only in their atmospheric initial conditions. In this way the PI will be able to estimate the contribution of natural internal variability to the post-Pinatubo temperature changes. He will compare the simulated and observed post-Pinatubo temperature changes to determine T2x. Anthropogenic Sulphate Aeroqol Induced Climate Change for Integrated Assessments. The objective of this research is to simulate the equilibrium climate change induced individually and collectively by the radiative forcing of 5 regional sources of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols for use by integrated assessment models. For this objective, the PI will perform 6 equilibrium climate-change simulations with his 7-layer tropospheric GC/MLO model. This researc h is important because it seeks to add new knowledge about climate processes with the goal of improvements in climate predictions.