Do Transportation Plans Affect Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Growth?

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Hopkins, Lewis U of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign This proposal is for research which examines the ways in which developers respond to information revealed through government plans specifically for transportation. A model will be developed which examines the plans for a light rail system in Metropolitan Portland, Oregon. Measures used to evaluate responses include spatial and temporal changes in land sales, land values, building permits, and land improvements. A parcel level, date stamped data base is developed in which transactions on landowner decisions and land values over time are recorded. In the analysis of the impact of government plans, an animated GIS capability is invoked over time to explore spatial and temporal lags among plan information, regulatory or infrastructure actions, and private development decisions. The research is grounded in a theoretical model and focuses upon the temporal interrelationship between the decisions of developers and local governments as a dynamic Stackleberg model of urban development. The proposed work also includes a rich variety of empirical analysis options. The research will extend understanding of the impact of government actions upon developers' behavior and will also deepen the theoretical literature on urban development.