Improvements of the Time-to-Failure Method for Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction and Testing Using the Extensive Southern California Earthquake Catalog

使用广泛的南加州地震目录改进中期地震预测和测试的故障时间方法

• 批准号: 9614658
• 负责人: Lawrence Braile
• 金额: $ 4.91万
• 依托单位: Purdue Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-03-15 至 1999-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9614658&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Improvements; Time; Failure; Method; Intermediate

9614658 Braile This research involves the study of the time-to-failure method of earthquake prediction whereby precursory earthquakes define an accelerated energy release curve associated with a main shock earthquake. This precursory sequence is modeled and a predicted magnitude and time-of-failure is calculated by solving an equation containing three unknown parameters and a relationship determined in earlier work on the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The study will extend the application of this method to southern California. The primary goal of this research is to improve and further evaluate the method and its uncertainties with the ultimate goal of implementation of practical intermediate-term earthquake prediction. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. ***

小行星9614658 这项研究涉及到地震预测的失效时间方法的研究，其中余震定义了一个加速的能量释放曲线与主震地震。 对该地震序列进行建模，并通过求解包含三个未知参数的方程和在新马德里地震带的早期工作中确定的关系来计算预测的震级和失效时间。 这项研究将把这种方法的应用推广到南加州。 本研究的主要目的是改进和进一步评估方法及其不确定性，最终目标是实现实用的中期地震预测。 这项研究是国家地震减灾计划的一个组成部分。 ***