Electoral Dynamics and Democratic Development in Nicaragua

9631011安德森 这项研究涉及对1996年巴布亚全国选举期间的民意进行深入分析。 在1990年的最后一次选举中，选民击败了自1979年革命以来一直统治该国的社会主义桑地诺现任者，并建立了致力于资本主义民主政权的Violeta Chamorro和UNO政府。 对1990年以来的调查数据的分析表明，选民的决定不仅基于对现有民主选举的关注，如候选人、经济和问题，而且还基于对桑地诺政权执政合法性的评估。 1990年代，尼加拉瓜政治持续不稳定和两极分化，其中大部分围绕着新宪法的制定，这表明1996年的选举可能也会集中在政权合法性问题以及候选人、经济和具体问题上。 因此，即将举行的选举提供了一个机会，在一个过渡性民主国家中广泛审查投票选择，在这个国家，政权合法性已经证明是推翻根深蒂固的政府的一个重要选举问题。 这次选举还提供了一个有趣的机会，将选民对1996年资本主义民主政权合法性的担忧与1990年社会主义民主政权的担忧进行对比。 这项研究通过收集1996年选举之前和之后的新的民意数据，并将其结果与1990年的数据进行比较，来研究这种广泛的对比和许多更具体的关切。 在一个更广泛和更具比较性的层面上，该项目的研究结果指向了下一代研究中比较政治学将普遍存在的关键问题：在资本主义民主与社会主义民主中，选民对政权合法性和国家角色的判断和解释是否不同？ 在新的后社会主义民主国家和新的后权威主义民主国家中，什么问题占主导地位？这些问题与老牌民主国家的问题相比如何？ 尼加拉瓜在其过渡进程中，并在1996年和1990年之间的对比中，提供了研究选举动态的第一批机会之一，这些动态可能决定其他新民主国家今后十年的政治。 ***

9631011 Anderson This research involves an in-depth analysis of public opinion during the 1996 Nicaraguan national election. In the last Nicaraguan election of 1990 voters defeated the socialist Sandinista incumbent who had governed the nation since the 1979 revolution and installed Violeta Chamorro and UNO, an administration committed to a capitalist, democratic regime. Analysis of survey data from 1990 demonstrates that voters based their decision not only on concerns present in established , democratic elections, such as the candidates, the economy, and the issues - but also on an assessment of the governing legitimacy of the Sandinista regime. the continuing instability and polarization of Nicaraguan politics in the 1990s, much of which surrounds the creation of a new Constitution, indicates that the 1996 election may also focus upon questions of regime legitimacy as well as on candidates, the economy, and specific issues. The upcoming election thus offers a chance for extensive examination of vote choice in a transitional democracy where regime legitimacy has already proven to be a significant electoral issue in deposing an entrenched government. The election also offers an intriguing opportunity to contrast voters' concerns about the legitimacy of a capitalist democratic regime in 1996 with the types of concerns raised with respect to a socialist democratic regime in 1990. The research pursues this broad contrast and numerous more specific concerns by collecting new public opinion data prior to and immediately following the 1996 election and comparing its results with the 1990 data. At a broader and more comparative level, the findings of the project point toward critical questions that will prevail in comparative politics over the next generation of research: Do voters judge and interpret regime legitimacy and the role of the state differently in capitalist versus socialist democracy? What concerns predominate in new post-socialist democracies and in new post-authoritaria n democracies and how do these compare with concerns in established democracies? In its transition process and in the contrast between 1996 and 1990 Nicaragua offers one of the first opportunities to study the electoral dynamics that may define politics in other new democracies over the next decade. ***