Electoral Dynamics and Democratic Development in Nicaragua

9631011安德森这项研究涉及对1996年尼加拉瓜全国选举期间的民意进行深入分析。在尼加拉瓜1990年的最后一次选举中，选民击败了自1979年革命以来一直统治国家的社会主义者桑地诺现任总统，并任命了维奥莱塔·查莫罗和联合国组织，这是一个致力于资本主义和民主政权的政府。对1990年以来的调查数据的分析表明，选民的决定不仅基于既定的民主选举中存在的关切，如候选人、经济和问题--而且还基于对桑地诺政权执政合法性的评估。1990年代尼加拉瓜政治持续不稳定和两极分化，其中很大一部分围绕着制定新宪法，这表明1996年的选举可能还会侧重于政权合法性问题以及候选人、经济和具体问题。因此，即将到来的选举为在过渡民主国家广泛审查投票选择提供了机会，在那里，政权合法性已被证明是推翻根深蒂固的政府的一个重大选举问题。这次选举还提供了一个耐人寻味的机会，将选民对1996年资本主义民主政权合法性的关切与1990年对社会主义民主政权提出的关切类型进行对比。这项研究通过收集1996年选举之前和之后的新的民意数据，并将其结果与1990年的数据进行比较，寻求这种广泛的对比和许多更具体的关切。在更广泛、更具可比性的层面上，该项目的发现指向了将在下一代研究中盛行的比较政治学中的关键问题：选民对政权的合法性以及国家在资本主义民主和社会主义民主中的角色是否有不同的判断和解释？在新的后社会主义民主政体和新的后威权民主政体中，什么担忧占据主导地位？这些担忧与老牌民主政体中的担忧相比如何？尼加拉瓜在过渡过程中，与1996年至1990年相反，提供了研究选举动态的第一批机会之一，这些动态可能决定其他新的民主政体今后十年的政治。***

9631011 Anderson This research involves an in-depth analysis of public opinion during the 1996 Nicaraguan national election. In the last Nicaraguan election of 1990 voters defeated the socialist Sandinista incumbent who had governed the nation since the 1979 revolution and installed Violeta Chamorro and UNO, an administration committed to a capitalist, democratic regime. Analysis of survey data from 1990 demonstrates that voters based their decision not only on concerns present in established , democratic elections, such as the candidates, the economy, and the issues - but also on an assessment of the governing legitimacy of the Sandinista regime. the continuing instability and polarization of Nicaraguan politics in the 1990s, much of which surrounds the creation of a new Constitution, indicates that the 1996 election may also focus upon questions of regime legitimacy as well as on candidates, the economy, and specific issues. The upcoming election thus offers a chance for extensive examination of vote choice in a transitional democracy where regime legitimacy has already proven to be a significant electoral issue in deposing an entrenched government. The election also offers an intriguing opportunity to contrast voters' concerns about the legitimacy of a capitalist democratic regime in 1996 with the types of concerns raised with respect to a socialist democratic regime in 1990. The research pursues this broad contrast and numerous more specific concerns by collecting new public opinion data prior to and immediately following the 1996 election and comparing its results with the 1990 data. At a broader and more comparative level, the findings of the project point toward critical questions that will prevail in comparative politics over the next generation of research: Do voters judge and interpret regime legitimacy and the role of the state differently in capitalist versus socialist democracy? What concerns predominate in new post-socialist democracies and in new post-authoritaria n democracies and how do these compare with concerns in established democracies? In its transition process and in the contrast between 1996 and 1990 Nicaragua offers one of the first opportunities to study the electoral dynamics that may define politics in other new democracies over the next decade. ***