Rapid: Democratization or De-democratization

理解独裁是如何在选举民主政体中产生的主要困难之一是，关于公民参与和支持独裁运动的数据有限。这样的举动往往是突然出现的，让分析师很难预测和研究。其中一项举措是丹尼尔·奥尔特加总统成功地阻止了他的主要对手参加尼加拉瓜最近和即将举行的选举。这一案例为我们提供了一个独特的机会来审查建立选举确认的独裁政体的努力。通过仔细研究这一案例，调查结果可能会影响支持民主及其发展的外交政策和国内组织。该项目采用了多波调查设计。最初的全国民意调查衡量了公民对奥尔特加的投票支持，随后的两项全国民意调查追踪了最初调查后几个月公民态度的演变。这些调查将被用来检验以下问题：公民对独裁的支持是否真的像民选独裁者所声称的那样广泛和持续，还是随着强人统治的残酷现实的出现，这种支持更加有限，容易迅速衰落？

One of the major difficulties in understanding how autocracy arises in electoral democracies is the limited data that exist on citizen participation in and support for autocratic moves. Such moves often arise suddenly, making them difficult for analysts to anticipate and study. One such move was the successful effort by President Daniel Ortega to void the participation of his major opponents in Nicaragua's recent and upcoming elections. This case provides us a unique opportunity to examine an effort to install electorally-validated autocracy. By closely examining this case, the findings can impact foreign policy and domestic organizations that support democracy and its development.The project uses a multi-wave survey design. An initial national public opinion survey gauges citizen vote support for Ortega, and then two subsequent national public opinion surveys trace the evolution of citizen attitudes in the months following the initial survey. These surveys will be used to examine the following question: Is citizen support for autocracy truly broad-gauged and sustained, as elected autocrats claim, or is it more limited and subject to rapid decay as the oppressive reality of strong-man rule emerges?