Rapid: Democratization or De-democratization

快速：民主化还是去民主化

• 批准号: 1712344
• 负责人: Leslie Anderson
• 金额: $ 7.5万
• 依托单位: University of Florida
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2019-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1712344&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Rapid; Democratization; De; democratization

One of the major difficulties in understanding how autocracy arises in electoral democracies is the limited data that exist on citizen participation in and support for autocratic moves. Such moves often arise suddenly, making them difficult for analysts to anticipate and study. One such move was the successful effort by President Daniel Ortega to void the participation of his major opponents in Nicaragua's recent and upcoming elections. This case provides us a unique opportunity to examine an effort to install electorally-validated autocracy. By closely examining this case, the findings can impact foreign policy and domestic organizations that support democracy and its development.The project uses a multi-wave survey design. An initial national public opinion survey gauges citizen vote support for Ortega, and then two subsequent national public opinion surveys trace the evolution of citizen attitudes in the months following the initial survey. These surveys will be used to examine the following question: Is citizen support for autocracy truly broad-gauged and sustained, as elected autocrats claim, or is it more limited and subject to rapid decay as the oppressive reality of strong-man rule emerges?

理解选举民主政体中专制是如何产生的主要困难之一是关于公民参与和支持专制运动的数据有限。这种变动往往突然出现，使分析师难以预测和研究。其中一项行动是丹尼尔·奥尔特加总统成功地使其主要对手无法参加尼加拉瓜最近和即将举行的选举。这一案件为我们提供了一个独特的机会，以检查努力安装选举验证专制。通过仔细研究这一案例，调查结果可以影响外交政策和支持民主及其发展的国内组织。最初的全国民意调查衡量了公民对奥尔特加的投票支持，随后的两次全国民意调查追踪了最初调查后几个月公民态度的演变。这些调查将被用来研究以下问题：公民对专制的支持是否真的如民选独裁者所声称的那样广泛和持久，还是随着强人统治的压迫性现实的出现而更加有限和迅速衰减？