Climate Change Damages, Adaptation, Innovation, and Abatement Decisions

本研究的目的是描述缓解全球气候变化政策的最佳近期决策对两个潜在重要因素的依赖性，这两个因素在当前的综合评估工作中没有得到足够的重视：（1）评估终点和损害函数的参数形式（将经济损失与气候变化联系起来）的选择，以及（2）关于适应以减少损害的决策。 分析将使用分析和综合评估模型相结合的方法，以评估这些因素的变化对最佳温室气体排放路径的影响，并了解这些影响的原因。 将使用哈佛风险分析中心（HCRA）综合评估模型进行探索性建模。 与其他综合评估模型相比，HCRA模型相对简单和灵活，允许快速修改，以纳入新的规范和解决方案的最佳温室气体排放轨迹的特性。 这项研究的结果应使人们初步了解在选择终点和/或损害函数以及适应机会的大小和控制方面的变化对气候减缓政策的重要性。 对这些因素的影响进行探讨，将有助于了解将这些因素纳入其他综合评估活动的重要性，并有助于提出哪些方面值得给予最大的关注。

The objective of this research is to characterize the dependence of optimal near-term decisions about policies to abate global climate change on two potentially important factors that have received inadequate attention in current integrated-assessment efforts: (1) selection of the evaluation endpoint and parametric form of the damage function (relating economic losses to climate change), and (2) decision making about adaptation to reduce damages. The analysis will use a combination of analytic and integrated-assessment models to evaluate the effects of changes in these factors on optimal greenhouse-gas emission paths and to develop an understanding of the reasons for these effects. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) Integrated Assessment Model will be used for exploratory modeling. Compared with other integrated assessment models, the HCRA model is relatively simple and flexible, characteristics which permit rapid modification to incorporate new specifications and solutions for optimal greenhouse-gas emission trajectories. The results of this research should provide an initial understanding of the importance for climate-abatement policy of variations in the choice of endpoint and/or damage function and the magnitude and control of opportunities for adaptation. Exploration of the effect of these factors will provide information about the importance of including them in other integrated assessment activities and will help to suggest which aspects warrant greatest attention.