Mechanistic Analyses of Weather Regime Transitions in the Community Climate Model

黑色异常天气是短期气候系统的一个重要组成部分，造成持续的区域极端天气。在许多研究集中于维持持续天气模式的地方，根据该合同，首席研究员（PI）将考虑这些系统的全职演变及其演变过程。在这项研究中，PI将分析网格观测数据集和由美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的社区气候模式（CCM）产生的模式模拟。详细分析将使用一种被称为分段趋势诊断的方法的重新表述版本（用于球体上的非保守流动）来完成。他们将集中于确定绝热过程和摩擦过程在政权过渡中的作用。此外，Black博士将进行数值实验，评估模型对初始大规模异常结构和模型物理的敏感性。这项研究的结果很可能对中纬度对流层的季节内变化提供重要的见解，这将有助于改进大范围的天气预报。＊＊＊

9634667 Black Anomalous weather regimes are an important component of the short term climate system, causing persistent extremes in regional weather. Where many studies have focused on the maintenance of persistent weather patterns, under this award, the principal investigator (PI) will consider the full time evolution of these systems and the processes responsible for their evolution. In this study, the PI will analyze both gridded observational data sets and model simulations produced with the Community Climate Model (CCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The detailed analyses will done using a reformulated (for nonconservative flow on a sphere) version of a methodology known as piecewise tendency diagnosis. They will be focused on determining the roles of diabatic and frictional processes in regime transitions. In addition, Dr. Black will conduct numerical experiments in which the model's sensitivity to initial large-scale anomaly structure and model physics are assessed. The results of this study are likely to provide important insights into the intraseasonal variability of the midlatitude troposphere which will allow improvements in extended range weather forecasting. ***