Mechanistic Analyses of Weather Regime Transitions in the Community Climate Model

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9634667 Black Anomalous weather regimes are an important component of the short term climate system, causing persistent extremes in regional weather. Where many studies have focused on the maintenance of persistent weather patterns, under this award, the principal investigator (PI) will consider the full time evolution of these systems and the processes responsible for their evolution. In this study, the PI will analyze both gridded observational data sets and model simulations produced with the Community Climate Model (CCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The detailed analyses will done using a reformulated (for nonconservative flow on a sphere) version of a methodology known as piecewise tendency diagnosis. They will be focused on determining the roles of diabatic and frictional processes in regime transitions. In addition, Dr. Black will conduct numerical experiments in which the model's sensitivity to initial large-scale anomaly structure and model physics are assessed. The results of this study are likely to provide important insights into the intraseasonal variability of the midlatitude troposphere which will allow improvements in extended range weather forecasting. ***