Information Casacades in Markets

市场信息级联

• 批准号: 9709530
• 负责人: Lisa Anderson
• 金额: $ 1.8万
• 依托单位: College of William and Mary
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-08-01 至 1999-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9709530&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Information; Casacades; Markets

Lisa Anderson This is a Research Opportunities for Women/Research Planning Grant. Information cascades are interesting phenomena that have received considerable attention from economic theorists. Cascades may form when individuals have private information and make public decisions in sequence. If early decisions match, it may be optimal for others to follow, regardless of their private information. Anecdotal examples of cascades include fads, trends in financial markets, and the influence of polls on voting behavior. It is difficult to rule out other explanations for conformity in most naturally occurring situations. Data from individual decision making experiments (Anderson, 1994 and Anderson and Holt, 1996) show that cascades form in a controlled laboratory environment where other motives to follow are minimized. This research research introduces the possibility of information cascades into a richer market setting. Previous experimental studies focus on situations where information dissemination reveals the true value of the asset, and hence, benefits traders. In the proposed experiments, traders have private signals that provide incomplete information about the value of an asset. Trades are made in sequence and are publicly announced (e.g., prices come across a ticker tape). In some cases, these public trades reveal private information. If early traders are misinformed, a reverse cascade may form, where other traders follow with incorrect decisions even though their private information would lead them to do otherwise. A pilot session of a parameterized version of this model reveals that cascades and reverse cascades form in many cases where they are possible. The following preliminary research will be conducted during the period covered by this Research Planning Grant: developing a theoretical model, determining interesting experimental treatments, conducting pilot experiments, and preparing a formal grant proposal based on the findings of the pilot experiments.

丽莎安德森这是一个妇女研究机会/研究规划补助金。 信息级联是一种有趣的现象，已经引起了经济理论家的极大关注。当个人拥有私人信息并按顺序做出公共决策时，可能会形成级联。如果早期的决定相匹配，那么其他人最好遵循，而不管他们的私人信息如何。级联效应的轶事例子包括时尚，金融市场的趋势，以及民意调查对投票行为的影响。在大多数自然发生的情况下，很难排除对顺从的其他解释。个别决策实验的数据（安德森，1994年和安德森和霍尔特，1996年）表明，级联是在一个受控制的实验室环境中形成的，在这种环境中，其他的动机被减少到最低限度。 这项研究将信息级联的可能性引入到更丰富的市场环境中。以前的实验研究集中在信息传播揭示资产的真实价值，从而使交易者受益的情况下。在拟议的实验中，交易员有私人信号，提供有关资产价值的不完整信息。交易是按顺序进行的，并且是公开宣布的（例如，价格出现在自动收报机上）。在某些情况下，这些公开交易会泄露私人信息。如果早期交易者被误导，可能会形成反向级联，其他交易者会跟随错误的决定，即使他们的私人信息会导致他们这样做。该模型的参数化版本的试点会议表明，级联和反向级联的形式在许多情况下，他们是可能的。以下初步研究将在本研究计划补助金所涵盖的期间进行：开发理论模型，确定有趣的实验治疗，进行试点实验，并根据试点实验的结果准备正式的补助金提案。