The Evolution of Research on Climate Change, 1946-1978

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The discovery that human activities may affect global climate could turn out to have major economic, political and social implications. Policy makers and the public are rightly concerned about how scientific agreement has developed (and has not developed) on the complicated topic of global warming. Historians of science have not yet addressed the history of research on climate change. The history is uninviting: a confused tangle of disparate results leading to no grand synthesis, but only to partial and provisional conclusions. A study of this history can illuminate how basic science is conducted on a topic where practical results are demanded even while definitive theories and methods are beyond reach. In the first phase of this project, the history of climate change research from the 1890s to the present was surveyed. This was followed by a detailed study explaining a major turning point in the history: how scientists demonstrated during the 1950s that carbon dioxide released by industry might well cause global warming in the next century. The next phase of this project, to be accomplished with this grant, will examine scientific developments in the field from 1946 through 1978. Investigation will focus on specific cases, such as computer modeling of climate, the study of past climates, and the influence of dust on atmospheric temperatures. Published scientific papers will be the primary source of data, augmented by popular articles and books, archival research, and oral history interviews and other retrospective information solicited from participants in the history. Results will be disseminated through articles for scholarly and general audiences, a site on the World-Wide Web, and, eventually, a book.