The Evolution of Research on Climate Change, 1946-1978

1946-1978 年气候变化研究的演变

• 批准号: 9710448
• 负责人: Spencer Weart
• 金额: $ 12.18万
• 依托单位: American Institute of Physics
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-09-01 至 2001-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9710448&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evolution; Research; Climate; Change; 1946

The discovery that human activities may affect global climate could turn out to have major economic, political and social implications. Policy makers and the public are rightly concerned about how scientific agreement has developed (and has not developed) on the complicated topic of global warming. Historians of science have not yet addressed the history of research on climate change. The history is uninviting: a confused tangle of disparate results leading to no grand synthesis, but only to partial and provisional conclusions. A study of this history can illuminate how basic science is conducted on a topic where practical results are demanded even while definitive theories and methods are beyond reach. In the first phase of this project, the history of climate change research from the 1890s to the present was surveyed. This was followed by a detailed study explaining a major turning point in the history: how scientists demonstrated during the 1950s that carbon dioxide released by industry might well cause global warming in the next century. The next phase of this project, to be accomplished with this grant, will examine scientific developments in the field from 1946 through 1978. Investigation will focus on specific cases, such as computer modeling of climate, the study of past climates, and the influence of dust on atmospheric temperatures. Published scientific papers will be the primary source of data, augmented by popular articles and books, archival research, and oral history interviews and other retrospective information solicited from participants in the history. Results will be disseminated through articles for scholarly and general audiences, a site on the World-Wide Web, and, eventually, a book.

人类活动可能会影响全球气候，这一发现可能会产生重大的经济、政治和社会影响。政策制定者和公众理所当然地担心，在全球变暖这个复杂的话题上，科学共识是如何发展起来的(以及还没有发展起来)。科学史学家还没有研究过气候变化的研究历史。历史是令人不快的：不同结果的混乱纠结导致了不全面的综合，只得出了部分和临时的结论。对这段历史的研究可以解释基础科学是如何在一个需要实际结果的主题上进行的，即使确定的理论和方法是遥不可及的。在该项目的第一阶段，对从19世纪90年代到现在的气候变化研究历史进行了调查。随后进行了一项详细的研究，解释了历史上的一个重大转折点：科学家如何在20世纪50年代证明，工业排放的二氧化碳很可能会在下个世纪导致全球变暖。该项目的下一阶段将用这笔赠款完成，将审查从1946年到1978年这一领域的科学发展。调查将集中在具体案例上，如气候的计算机模拟、对过去气候的研究以及尘埃对大气温度的影响。发表的科学论文将是数据的主要来源，并辅之以受欢迎的文章和书籍、档案研究、口述历史访谈和从历史参与者那里获得的其他追溯性信息。结果将通过面向学术和普通受众的文章、万维网上的一个网站以及最终出版的一本书来传播。