The Evolution of Research on Climate Change, 1946-1978

人类活动可能影响全球气候这一发现可能会产生重大的经济、政治和社会影响。 政策制定者和公众对全球变暖这一复杂话题的科学共识是如何形成（以及尚未形成）的，这是正确的。 科学史学家尚未讨论气候变化研究的历史。 这段历史并不吸引人：不同结果的混乱纠缠导致没有大的综合，而只是部分和临时的结论。 对这段历史的研究可以说明基础科学是如何在一个需要实际结果的主题上进行的，即使确定的理论和方法遥不可及。 在该项目的第一阶段，调查了从19世纪90年代至今的气候变化研究历史。 随后是一项详细的研究，解释了历史上的一个重大转折点：科学家如何在20世纪50年代证明，工业排放的二氧化碳很可能导致下一个世纪的全球变暖。 该项目的下一阶段将利用这笔赠款完成，将审查1946年至1978年该领域的科学发展。 调查将侧重于具体案例，如气候的计算机建模，过去气候的研究，以及灰尘对大气温度的影响。 已发表的科学论文将是数据的主要来源，并通过流行文章和书籍、档案研究、口述历史访谈以及从历史参与者那里征集的其他回顾性信息进行补充。 研究结果将通过面向学术和一般读者的文章、万维网上的一个网站以及最终出版的一本书来传播。

The discovery that human activities may affect global climate could turn out to have major economic, political and social implications. Policy makers and the public are rightly concerned about how scientific agreement has developed (and has not developed) on the complicated topic of global warming. Historians of science have not yet addressed the history of research on climate change. The history is uninviting: a confused tangle of disparate results leading to no grand synthesis, but only to partial and provisional conclusions. A study of this history can illuminate how basic science is conducted on a topic where practical results are demanded even while definitive theories and methods are beyond reach. In the first phase of this project, the history of climate change research from the 1890s to the present was surveyed. This was followed by a detailed study explaining a major turning point in the history: how scientists demonstrated during the 1950s that carbon dioxide released by industry might well cause global warming in the next century. The next phase of this project, to be accomplished with this grant, will examine scientific developments in the field from 1946 through 1978. Investigation will focus on specific cases, such as computer modeling of climate, the study of past climates, and the influence of dust on atmospheric temperatures. Published scientific papers will be the primary source of data, augmented by popular articles and books, archival research, and oral history interviews and other retrospective information solicited from participants in the history. Results will be disseminated through articles for scholarly and general audiences, a site on the World-Wide Web, and, eventually, a book.