Collaborative Research: ORCC: The Interplay of Plasticity and Evolution in Pierid Butterfly Responses to Recent Climate Change

合作研究：ORCC：粉蝶对近期气候变化的可塑性和进化的相互作用

• 批准号: 2222090
• 负责人: Joel Kingsolver
• 金额: $ 9.86万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-12-01 至 2026-11-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2222090&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; Interplay; Plasticity

Plants and animals have responded to recent climate change in a variety of different ways, highlighting the need to identify the biological mechanisms that can result in seemingly unpredictable responses. Incorporating the mechanisms into ecological and evolutionary forecasting models is essential to accurately project the biodiversity consequences of climate change. Dramatic insect declines, including of butterflies in the Western US, reinforce the need to improve forecasts for conservation planning related to biodiversity, agriculture, and the maintenance of ecosystem services such as pollination. Will insect populations move, go extinct, or be able to adapt to future climate change? Researchers will repeat historical lab and field experiments with Pierid butterflies to ask whether evolution and developmental plasticity of larval and adult traits relevant to thermal responses have kept pace with recent climate change. Modeling resources will be disseminated through the ‘TrEnCh’ project, which provides computational and visualization tools to Translate Environmental Change into organismal responses. Trainees will translate the research into TrEnCh-Ed inquiry-based modules with interactive data visualizations. Workshops will introduce these resources to high school and undergraduate teachers. The proposed research will partially be conducted via course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) at a community college with a diverse student body. The CUREs will introduce students to relevant concepts in plant and animal biology and to the research process. Some students will continue research and professional development training in the summer to facilitate their transition to a 4-year college and their retention in science. The research will identify the biological mechanisms underlying evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change by quantifying how butterfly temperatures have shifted over several decades and developing a mechanistic model that links the temperature changes and traits to ecological and evolutionary responses. The following studies will test the mechanisms predicted to drive evolution and refine the model. Repeating field selection studies will investigate whether selection on Pieris rapae larval thermal performance curves (TPCs) and on Pontia occidentalis adult body size and wing traits has shifted over time. Studying selection on several wing traits across seasons will indicate relative selective responses to thermal means versus extremes and assay whether selection varies seasonally. The research will determine whether selection results in evolution of larval TPCs as well as adult traits and their plasticity. The project will test several hypotheses related to recent warming. Performance at high temperatures will be enhanced relative to the past. Wing coloration involved in heat-avoidance postures will be lighter. Wing coloration involved in basking may lighten in response to climate warming, but there may be selection for wing darkening to allow for performance in cool, early season conditions. These opposing selection pressures will lead to amplified seasonal variation in selection and selection for increased plasticity. The research will additionally assess whether genetic correlations and variation have constrained evolution and whether they have shifted over time. The research will further develop and test phenotype-based models to solve the problem of unpredictability in climate change biology.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

植物和动物以各种不同的方式应对最近的气候变化，这突出表明需要确定可能导致看似不可预测的反应的生物机制。将这些机制纳入生态和进化预测模型，对于准确预测气候变化对生物多样性的影响至关重要。包括美国西部蝴蝶在内的昆虫数量急剧下降，这加强了改善与生物多样性、农业和维持授粉等生态系统服务相关的保护规划预测的必要性。昆虫种群会迁移、灭绝还是能够适应未来的气候变化？研究人员将对粉蝶重复历史实验室和实地实验，以询问与热反应相关的幼虫和成虫特征的进化和发育可塑性是否与最近的气候变化保持同步。建模资源将通过“TrEnCh”项目传播，该项目提供计算和可视化工具，将环境变化转化为生物体的反应。学员将把研究成果转化为具有交互式数据可视化的TrEnCh-Ed调查模块。讲习班将向高中和本科教师介绍这些资源。拟议的研究将部分通过课程为基础的本科生研究经验（CURES）在一所社区学院与多元化的学生团体进行。本课程将向学生介绍植物和动物生物学的相关概念以及研究过程。一些学生将在夏季继续进行研究和专业发展培训，以促进他们过渡到4年制大学并保留科学知识。该研究将通过量化蝴蝶温度在几十年内如何变化，并开发一种将温度变化和特征与生态和进化反应联系起来的机制模型，来确定对气候变化的进化和塑性反应背后的生物学机制。以下研究将测试预测的驱动进化的机制并完善模型。重复现场选择研究将调查是否选择粉蝶幼虫的热性能曲线（TPC）和Pontia occurentalis成年人的身体大小和翅膀性状已随着时间的推移而改变。研究选择几个翅膀性状跨季节将表明相对选择反应的热手段与极端和分析选择是否随季节变化。该研究将确定选择是否会导致幼虫TPC以及成虫性状及其可塑性的进化。该项目将测试与最近变暖有关的几个假设。相对于过去，高温下的性能将得到增强。在避热姿势中，翅膀的颜色会变浅。参与晒太阳的翅膀颜色可能会减轻气候变暖的反应，但可能有选择的翅膀变暗，以允许在凉爽，早期季节条件下的性能。这些相反的选择压力将导致选择和选择的可塑性增加的放大的季节性变化。这项研究还将评估遗传相关性和变异是否限制了进化，以及它们是否随着时间的推移而发生了变化。该研究将进一步开发和测试基于表型的模型，以解决气候变化生物学中的不可预测性问题。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。