Development of Advanced Guidance for Forecasting High-Impact Weather

制定高影响天气预报高级指南

• 批准号: 9714154
• 负责人: J. Michael Fritsch
• 金额: $ 31.77万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-09-01 至 2001-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9714154&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Development; Advanced; Guidance; Forecasting; Impact

9714154 Fritsch The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. It is well documented that the utility of raw observations and numerical model output can be greatly enhanced by statistical post-processing. Recent advances in numerical modeling and the installation of new observing systems have created an opportunity and a need to redesign existing post-processing techniques and to develop new techniques. The Principal Investigator will design, construct, and test new statistical post-processing procedures that will capitalize on the emerging ensemble technology and will minimize the effects of changes in operational numerical models on statistical post-processing procedures. He will also construct an advanced observations-based statistical forecasting system for providing reliable probabilistic short-term guidance on high-impact weather. The observations- based system will capitalize on high-frequency observing platforms such as WSR-88D Doppler radars and satellite information. A primary tool of the proposed work will be the application of general additive models that allow for certain non- linearities in statistical regression relationships. It is expected that the resulting techniques will yield significant lead time advances in forecasts of sensible weather parameters and provide much-needed probabilistic guidance for short-term decision making during high-impact weather events. ***

小行星9714154 美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项跨部门活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善向国家提供的天气服务。 根据这一方案，国家科学基金会、国家海洋和大气管理局、国家航空航天局和海军研究办公室正在联合评估和支持美国水资源研究计划高度优先的研究。 有充分的证据表明，统计后处理可以大大提高原始观测和数值模型输出的效用。 数值模拟和安装新的观测系统的最新进展创造了一个机会，需要重新设计现有的后处理技术和开发新的技术。 首席研究员将设计、构建和测试新的统计后处理程序，这些程序将利用新兴的集成技术，并将最大限度地减少操作数值模型变化对统计后处理程序的影响。 他还将建立一个先进的基于观测的统计预报系统，为高影响天气提供可靠的概率短期指导。 基于观测的系统将利用高频观测平台，如WSR-88 D多普勒雷达和卫星信息。 拟议工作的主要工具将是应用一般的加法模型，允许在统计回归关系的某些非线性。 预计由此产生的技术将产生显着的提前时间预测的明智的天气参数，并提供急需的概率指导短期决策期间的高影响的天气事件。 ***