Development of Advanced Guidance for Forecasting High-Impact Weather

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9714154 Fritsch The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. It is well documented that the utility of raw observations and numerical model output can be greatly enhanced by statistical post-processing. Recent advances in numerical modeling and the installation of new observing systems have created an opportunity and a need to redesign existing post-processing techniques and to develop new techniques. The Principal Investigator will design, construct, and test new statistical post-processing procedures that will capitalize on the emerging ensemble technology and will minimize the effects of changes in operational numerical models on statistical post-processing procedures. He will also construct an advanced observations-based statistical forecasting system for providing reliable probabilistic short-term guidance on high-impact weather. The observations- based system will capitalize on high-frequency observing platforms such as WSR-88D Doppler radars and satellite information. A primary tool of the proposed work will be the application of general additive models that allow for certain non- linearities in statistical regression relationships. It is expected that the resulting techniques will yield significant lead time advances in forecasts of sensible weather parameters and provide much-needed probabilistic guidance for short-term decision making during high-impact weather events. ***