Very Short Term Prediction of Aviation Weather Parameters

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This research will develop a new computer-based system for improving very short-term prediction of aviation-sensitive weather parameters. The emphasis on very short term predictions designed to meet the needs of aviation-oriented weather prediction means that the "spin-up" period (often lasting 6-12 hours) that is characteristic of previous operational numerical models must be virtually eliminated. The development of an FDDA procedure will assimilate a variety of conventional and remotely sensed observations into the governing hydrodynamic system of equations of the high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. This will include both short- and long-term strategies: 1) developing and testing a suitable procedure for near-term operational implementation based primarily on the widely tested Newtonian relaxation (nudging) technique, and 2) perform basic and developmental research to explore the feasibility of the more advance adjoint technique. The FDDA procedure, coupled with the mesoscale numerical model and the statistical model, will be combined into a single working system, which will then be tested on real data events and compared to current operational aviation weather-sensitive products.