Very Short Term Prediction of Aviation Weather Parameters

这项研究将开发一种新的基于计算机的系统， 改善对航空敏感天气的超短期预测 参数 强调非常短期的预测， 满足航空气象预报手段的需要 “自旋”期间（通常持续6-12小时）， 以前的业务数值模型的特点必须是 几乎被消灭了。 FDDA程序的开发将吸收各种 传统的和遥感观测到的 高分辨率中尺度水动力方程组 数值模型 这将包括短期和长期 战略：1）制定和测试一个适当的程序， 短期业务执行主要基于广泛的 测试牛顿松弛（轻推）技术，和2）执行 基础和发展研究，探讨 更先进的伴随技术 FDDA程序与中尺度数值模式耦合 和统计模型，将被组合成一个单一的工作 系统，然后将在真实的数据事件上进行测试并进行比较 目前运营的航空天气敏感产品。

This research will develop a new computer-based system for improving very short-term prediction of aviation-sensitive weather parameters. The emphasis on very short term predictions designed to meet the needs of aviation-oriented weather prediction means that the "spin-up" period (often lasting 6-12 hours) that is characteristic of previous operational numerical models must be virtually eliminated. The development of an FDDA procedure will assimilate a variety of conventional and remotely sensed observations into the governing hydrodynamic system of equations of the high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. This will include both short- and long-term strategies: 1) developing and testing a suitable procedure for near-term operational implementation based primarily on the widely tested Newtonian relaxation (nudging) technique, and 2) perform basic and developmental research to explore the feasibility of the more advance adjoint technique. The FDDA procedure, coupled with the mesoscale numerical model and the statistical model, will be combined into a single working system, which will then be tested on real data events and compared to current operational aviation weather-sensitive products.