Very Short Term Prediction of Aviation Weather Parameters

航空天气参数的极短期预测

• 批准号: 9203317
• 负责人: J. Michael Fritsch
• 金额: $ 153.95万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-10-01 至 1998-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9203317&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Very; Short; Term; Prediction; Aviation

This research will develop a new computer-based system for improving very short-term prediction of aviation-sensitive weather parameters. The emphasis on very short term predictions designed to meet the needs of aviation-oriented weather prediction means that the "spin-up" period (often lasting 6-12 hours) that is characteristic of previous operational numerical models must be virtually eliminated. The development of an FDDA procedure will assimilate a variety of conventional and remotely sensed observations into the governing hydrodynamic system of equations of the high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. This will include both short- and long-term strategies: 1) developing and testing a suitable procedure for near-term operational implementation based primarily on the widely tested Newtonian relaxation (nudging) technique, and 2) perform basic and developmental research to explore the feasibility of the more advance adjoint technique. The FDDA procedure, coupled with the mesoscale numerical model and the statistical model, will be combined into a single working system, which will then be tested on real data events and compared to current operational aviation weather-sensitive products.

这项研究将开发一种新的基于计算机的系统，用于改进对航空敏感的天气参数的极短期预测。为了满足以航空为导向的天气预报的需要而着重于非常短期的预报，这意味着必须几乎消除以前的操作数值模式所具有的“旋转上升”期（通常持续6-12小时）。FDDA程序的发展将把各种常规和遥感观测结果吸收到高分辨率中尺度数值模式的控制水动力系统方程中。这将包括短期和长期战略：1)开发和测试一个适合近期操作实施的程序，主要基于广泛测试的牛顿松弛（轻推）技术，2)进行基础和发展研究，以探索更先进的伴随技术的可行性。FDDA程序，加上中尺度数值模式和统计模式，将合并成一个单一的工作系统，然后将在实际数据事件中进行测试，并与当前操作的航空天气敏感产品进行比较。