Improvement in QPF of Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes Using Remote Sensing

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9714361Smith The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. One of the primary goals of the USWRP is to perform the research necessary to improve track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes. This research effort is a collaboration between Dr. Smith and Professor Gregory Tripoli of the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Smith is an expert in the use and interpretation of satellite information and Dr. Tripoli's expertise is in the realm of mesoscale numerical modeling. This research focuses on better understanding of the characteristics of Atlantic hurricanes and the improvement in the prediction of their track, intensity and rainfall. The research includes the assimilation of time-sequenced satellite moisture and wind products into a cloud resolving version of the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System. Since satellite observations can identify meso-beta scale structures, particularly in the moisture and wind fields, which in turn modulate the meso-beta-scale precipitation structures of the model forecasts, by beginning forecasts over the open ocean where conventional data voids are greatest, the Principal Investigators expect to achieve better skill in determining the timing and position of landfall. Vertically resolved moisture profiles produced by the operational satellite sounder retrieval system at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), along with vertically resolved cloud-tracked and water vapor winds also produced at CIMSS will be nudged and blended into model forecasts for hurricane cases from the 1998 and 1999 hurricane season. The 1995 hurricane Opal event will be studied prior to the 1998/1999 season in preparation for near real-time modeling experiments during the two full seasons. The research will seek improvements to both prediction of track-intensity factors, and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) during entire storm life cycles. To determine the impact of the data assimilation, and to assess and validate the improvements in QPF both before and after landfall, passive microwave measurements from Special Sensor Microwave Imagery and combined passive microwave-precipitation radar measurements from the upcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will be used with physically-based precipitation profile retrieval algorithms operated at Florida State University under the direction of Professor Smith. Successful completion of this research will potentially lead to techniques for improved use of advanced data from satellites for forecasting of hurricanes.***