Climatology and Forecastability of Atmospheric Block Onsets

这个项目的目标是促进我们对北半球大尺度大气流动转变为一种相对稳定的流动模式的理解，这种模式被称为“阻塞”。这种气流模式的变化是一个突出的天气预报问题，导致这种转变的过程仍然不为人所知。科鲁奇博士将专注于两项任务。首先是发展阻塞前气流条件的气候学，如果可能的话，确定过渡的前兆。这项工作将建立在初步工作的基础上，初步结果是有希望的，但将扩大气候学，在未来几年和几个层次上包括来自欧洲中期预报中心（ECMWF）的分析领域。第二项任务是分析阻塞事件的综合预报，并将这些结果与国家大气研究中心的一个研究模型所做的综合预报进行比较。从这项研究中获得的见解很可能导致中期预测能力的提高。

9726250 Colucci The goal of this project is to advance our understanding of the transition of the large-scale atmospheric flow in the Northern Hemisphere into a relatively stable flow pattern known as "blocking". The change to this flow pattern is one of the outstanding weather forecasting problems and the processes responsible for the transition are still not understood. Dr. Colucci will focus on two tasks. The first is to develop a climatology of pre-blocking flow conditions and identify, if possible, precursors to the transitions. This work will build upon preliminary work in which the initial results are promising, but will expand the climatology to include analyzed fields from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) for additional years and at several levels. The second tasks involves the analysis of operational ensemble forecasts of blocking events and comparing those results with ensemble forecasts done with a research model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Insights gained from this research may well lead to improved medium range forecast capabilities.