Short-range Ensemble Prediction with the NCEP Eta Model

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9508645 Colucci The purpose of this research is the explore the feasibility of applying current ensemble weather forecast methodologies to predicting the sensible surface weather for forecasts of 0-2 days (i.e., short-range ensemble forecasting, or SREF). The primary research goal is to characterize if and when the existing perturbation methodology may be used for SREF. The principal datasets to be employed in the study are produced routinely by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The usefulness of the ensembles will be judged by comparisons of the 80 km eta model ensemble output with the single-run, high resolution (29 km) eta regional model forecasts and Model Output Statistics (MOS) from the Nested Grid Model (NGM). The focus will be on determining under what conditions the use of current methodologies is effective and when other methodologies might be employed instead. This award provides support for a doctoral research project that also has considerable potential for improving operational short-term forecasting. ??