Short-range Ensemble Prediction with the NCEP Eta Model

使用 NCEP Eta 模型进行短程集合预测

• 批准号: 9508645
• 负责人: Stephen Colucci
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Cornell Univ - State: AWDS MADE PRIOR MAY 2010
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-08-15 至 1998-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9508645&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Short; range; Ensemble; Prediction; NCEP

9508645 Colucci The purpose of this research is the explore the feasibility of applying current ensemble weather forecast methodologies to predicting the sensible surface weather for forecasts of 0-2 days (i.e., short-range ensemble forecasting, or SREF). The primary research goal is to characterize if and when the existing perturbation methodology may be used for SREF. The principal datasets to be employed in the study are produced routinely by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The usefulness of the ensembles will be judged by comparisons of the 80 km eta model ensemble output with the single-run, high resolution (29 km) eta regional model forecasts and Model Output Statistics (MOS) from the Nested Grid Model (NGM). The focus will be on determining under what conditions the use of current methodologies is effective and when other methodologies might be employed instead. This award provides support for a doctoral research project that also has considerable potential for improving operational short-term forecasting. ??

本研究的目的是探讨应用现有集合天气预报方法预测0-2天感地表天气（即短程集合预报，简称SREF）的可行性。主要的研究目标是确定现有的微扰方法是否以及何时可以用于SREF。研究中使用的主要数据集是由国家环境预测中心（NCEP）例行编制的。通过将80 km eta模式集成输出与单次、高分辨率（29 km） eta区域模式预报和嵌套网格模式（NGM）的模式输出统计（MOS）进行比较，可以判断集成的有用性。重点将是确定在什么条件下使用目前的方法是有效的，以及何时可以采用其他方法代替。该奖项为博士研究项目提供支持，该项目在改进业务短期预报方面也具有相当大的潜力。？?