Structural Empirical Research on Temporal and Geographic Variations in Economic Activity

经济活动的时间和地理变化的结构实证研究

• 批准号: 9730341
• 负责人: Robert Hall
• 金额: $ 6.67万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-04-15 至 2002-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730341&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Structural; Empirical; Research; Temporal; Geographic

9730341 Hall This project studies the economic forces that lead to variations in the intensity of economic activity over time and across space and, more specifically, recessions. The research provides the first integrated and systematic study of the two most conspicuous features of a recession - large increases in the number of workers seeking new jobs and the release of inventories into the product market. Recessions are times when there are sharp increases in the number of plants and other productive units shut down. Two basic forces lead to these shutdowns. One is an increase in the discount rate applied by firms in making decisions about the continuation of marginal productive units. A higher discount rate causes firms to choose immediate liquidation over a future stream of profits. Measures of internal discount rates are highly successful predictors of job destruction and inventory liquidation. The second force is profit. When the profitability of future operation of a plant falls, either because its product price falls or because costs increase, shutdown is more likely. Again, industry-level profit measures are successful predictors of job destruction. This work is extended theoretically and empirically. It becomes the basis for studying important outstanding questions in the analysis of business cycles such as: what are the shocks that trigger recessions? What are the mechanisms that amplify and propagate them? The project also continues work from the previous NSF grant on geographic variations in activity. The investigator's work on differences in output per work across countries has demonstrated the importance of social institutions and infrastructure. Favorable laws and government performance lead to vastly higher levels of output. These factors operate through the accumulation of human capital, physical capital, and productivity. ??

9730341霍尔这个项目研究了导致随着时间和跨太空的经济活动强度变化的经济力量，更具体地说是衰退。 这项研究提供了对经济衰退的两个最显着特征的首次整合，系统的研究 - 寻求新工作的工人数量大幅增加以及将库存释放到产品市场中。 衰退是植物数量和其他生产单元关闭的急剧增加的时期。 两个基本力量导致这些关闭。 一种是公司在决定延续边际生产单位的决策时提高的折现率。 较高的折现率使公司选择立即清算，而不是将来的利润流。 内部折现率的度量是毁灭工作和清算库存清算的非常成功的预测指标。 第二力量是利润。 当植物未来运营的盈利能力下降时，由于其产品价格下跌，要么是因为成本上涨，因此关闭的可能性更大。 同样，行业水平的利润措施是成功破坏工作的成功预测指标。 理论上和经验上扩展了这项工作。 它成为研究重要问题的重要问题的基础，例如：触发衰退的冲击是什么？ 放大和传播它们的机制是什么？ 该项目还从以前的NSF赠款中继续工作，对活动的地理变化。 研究者在各个国家 /地区每项工作差异的工作表明，社会机构和基础设施的重要性。 有利的法律​​和政府绩效导致产出水平更高。 这些因素通过人力资本，物理资本和生产力的积累来运作。 ？