Structural Empirical Research on Temporal and Geographic Variations in Economic Activity

经济活动的时间和地理变化的结构实证研究

• 批准号: 9730341
• 负责人: Robert Hall
• 金额: $ 6.67万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-04-15 至 2002-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730341&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Structural; Empirical; Research; Temporal; Geographic

9730341 Hall This project studies the economic forces that lead to variations in the intensity of economic activity over time and across space and, more specifically, recessions. The research provides the first integrated and systematic study of the two most conspicuous features of a recession - large increases in the number of workers seeking new jobs and the release of inventories into the product market. Recessions are times when there are sharp increases in the number of plants and other productive units shut down. Two basic forces lead to these shutdowns. One is an increase in the discount rate applied by firms in making decisions about the continuation of marginal productive units. A higher discount rate causes firms to choose immediate liquidation over a future stream of profits. Measures of internal discount rates are highly successful predictors of job destruction and inventory liquidation. The second force is profit. When the profitability of future operation of a plant falls, either because its product price falls or because costs increase, shutdown is more likely. Again, industry-level profit measures are successful predictors of job destruction. This work is extended theoretically and empirically. It becomes the basis for studying important outstanding questions in the analysis of business cycles such as: what are the shocks that trigger recessions? What are the mechanisms that amplify and propagate them? The project also continues work from the previous NSF grant on geographic variations in activity. The investigator's work on differences in output per work across countries has demonstrated the importance of social institutions and infrastructure. Favorable laws and government performance lead to vastly higher levels of output. These factors operate through the accumulation of human capital, physical capital, and productivity. ??

9730341霍尔这个项目研究了导致经济活动强度随时间和空间变化的经济力量，更具体地说，是经济衰退。这项研究首次对经济衰退最显著的两个特征--寻找新工作的工人数量大幅增加和向产品市场释放库存--进行了全面和系统的研究。经济衰退是指关闭的工厂和其他生产单位的数量急剧增加。有两种基本力量导致了这些停摆。一是提高了企业在决定是否继续使用边际生产单位时使用的贴现率。较高的贴现率导致公司选择立即清算，而不是未来的利润流。内部贴现率的衡量是非常成功的就业破坏和库存清算的预测指标。第二股力量是利润。当工厂未来运营的盈利能力下降时，要么是因为产品价格下降，要么是因为成本增加，关闭的可能性更大。再一次，行业层面的利润指标是就业岗位减少的成功预测指标。这项工作在理论上和经验上都得到了扩展。它成为研究商业周期分析中重要悬而未决问题的基础，例如：触发衰退的冲击是什么？是什么机制放大和传播了它们？该项目还继续了前一次国家科学基金会拨款中关于活动地理差异的工作。调查员关于各国每项工作产出差异的工作证明了社会机构和基础设施的重要性。有利的法律和政府绩效会带来更高的产出水平。这些因素通过人力资本、物质资本和生产力的积累发挥作用。?？