Structural Empirical Research on Temporal and Geographic Variations in Economic Activity

9730341霍尔本项目研究导致经济活动强度随时间和空间变化的经济力量，更具体地说，研究经济衰退。这项研究首次对经济衰退的两个最显著特征——寻找新工作的工人数量大幅增加和向产品市场释放库存——进行了综合而系统的研究。经济衰退是指工厂和其他生产单位关闭数量急剧增加的时期。两种基本力量导致了这些关闭。一个是企业在决定边际生产单位的延续时所应用的贴现率的增加。较高的贴现率导致企业选择立即清算，而不是未来的利润流。内部贴现率是非常成功的就业损失和库存清算的预测指标。第二种力量是利润。当工厂未来运营的盈利能力下降时，无论是由于产品价格下降还是由于成本增加，关闭的可能性更大。同样，行业层面的利润指标是就业岗位减少的成功预测指标。这项工作从理论上和经验上进行了扩展。它成为研究商业周期分析中重要的突出问题的基础，例如：什么是引发衰退的冲击？放大和传播它们的机制是什么？该项目还继续从以前的NSF资助的工作在活动的地理差异。研究者对各国每项工作产出差异的研究表明了社会制度和基础设施的重要性。有利的法律和政府绩效导致产出水平大幅提高。这些因素通过人力资本、物质资本和生产力的积累发挥作用。？?

9730341 Hall This project studies the economic forces that lead to variations in the intensity of economic activity over time and across space and, more specifically, recessions. The research provides the first integrated and systematic study of the two most conspicuous features of a recession - large increases in the number of workers seeking new jobs and the release of inventories into the product market. Recessions are times when there are sharp increases in the number of plants and other productive units shut down. Two basic forces lead to these shutdowns. One is an increase in the discount rate applied by firms in making decisions about the continuation of marginal productive units. A higher discount rate causes firms to choose immediate liquidation over a future stream of profits. Measures of internal discount rates are highly successful predictors of job destruction and inventory liquidation. The second force is profit. When the profitability of future operation of a plant falls, either because its product price falls or because costs increase, shutdown is more likely. Again, industry-level profit measures are successful predictors of job destruction. This work is extended theoretically and empirically. It becomes the basis for studying important outstanding questions in the analysis of business cycles such as: what are the shocks that trigger recessions? What are the mechanisms that amplify and propagate them? The project also continues work from the previous NSF grant on geographic variations in activity. The investigator's work on differences in output per work across countries has demonstrated the importance of social institutions and infrastructure. Favorable laws and government performance lead to vastly higher levels of output. These factors operate through the accumulation of human capital, physical capital, and productivity. ??