Business Cycles and Industry Dynamics

与此同时，理论工作试图理解反周期工作再分配的原因，新的实证工作对所有工作再分配都是反周期的命题提出了质疑。有充分的证据表明，在许多非制造业中，工作再分配是顺周期的。这一新的就业创造和就业破坏证据挑战了所有反周期就业再分配理论。本研究通过应用竞争性行业的动态微观经济理论来研究年轻工厂和老工厂之间周期动态的差异，并研究单一服务行业（餐饮业）的行业动态，从而解决了这一挑战。本研究由两个项目组成。第一篇分析了观察到的年轻植物和老植物在周期行为上的生命周期差异。其假设是，新工厂和老工厂之间的一个差异（它们的调整成本）导致了它们在就业动态方面的许多可测量差异。而不是假设年轻的工厂有更低的调整成本比老工厂在一个特别的方式，这样的差异是内生的，通过给管理者一个选择的组织技术。由于它们的简单性，行业动态的竞争模型对需求冲击对价格和数量的影响做出了明确的预测。如果进入市场的速度很快，而拥堵不会影响成本，那么需求冲击就不会对价格或现有工厂产生影响。在这种情况下，个体生产者的动态和总体变量的动态彼此之间没有联系。如果进入需要时间，或者交通拥堵增加了成本，需求冲击就会影响价格和现有工厂。第二个项目将确定哪种竞争模式最能描述餐饮业；它将提供一个更详细的特征，反映净进入，平均企业规模，和其他规模分布统计数据对需求冲击的反应比可以从理论单独获得。该方法是通过当地军事基地和国防合同来识别当地需求冲击，并估计其对餐馆价格和数量的影响，揭示短期供给曲线是持平还是上升。

At the same time that theoretical work sought to understand the cause of counter cyclical job reallocation, new empirical work has shed doubt on the proposition that all job reallocation is counter cyclical. There is good evidence that job reallocation is procyclical in many non manufacturing industries. This new job creation and destruction evidence challenges all theories of counter cyclical job reallocation. This research addresses this challenge by applying the dynamic microeconomic theory of a competitive industry to study differences in cyclical dynamics between young and old plants and to study the industry dynamics of a single service industry, restaurants. This study consists of two projects. The first analyzes observed life cycle differences in cyclical behavior between young and old plants. The hypothesis is that one difference between young and old plants, (their adjustment costs), is responsible for the many measured differences in their employment dynamics. Rather than assume that young plants have lower adjustment costs then old plants in an ad hoc fashion, such a difference are derived endogenously by giving managers a choice of organizational technology. Because of their simplicity, competitive models of industry dynamics make stark predictions regarding the effects of demand shocks on prices and quantities. If entry can occur quickly and congestion does not affect costs, then demand shocks have no effect on prices or incumbent plants. In this case, the dynamics of individual producers and that of aggregate variables have no connection with one another. If entry takes time or if congestion increases costs, demand shocks affect both prices and incumbent plants. The second project will determine which competitive model best describes the restaurant industry; and it will provide a more detailed characterization of the response of net entry, average firm size, and other size distribution statistics to a demand shock than can be gained from theory alone. The approach is to identify local demand shocks with local military basing and defense contracts and estimate their impact on restaurant prices and quantities, revealing whether the short run supply curve is flat or increasing.