Business Cycles and Industry Dynamics

商业周期和行业动态

• 批准号: 9730442
• 负责人: Jeffrey Campbell
• 金额: $ 9.03万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-03-01 至 2000-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730442&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Business; Cycles; Industry; Dynamics

At the same time that theoretical work sought to understand the cause of counter cyclical job reallocation, new empirical work has shed doubt on the proposition that all job reallocation is counter cyclical. There is good evidence that job reallocation is procyclical in many non manufacturing industries. This new job creation and destruction evidence challenges all theories of counter cyclical job reallocation. This research addresses this challenge by applying the dynamic microeconomic theory of a competitive industry to study differences in cyclical dynamics between young and old plants and to study the industry dynamics of a single service industry, restaurants. This study consists of two projects. The first analyzes observed life cycle differences in cyclical behavior between young and old plants. The hypothesis is that one difference between young and old plants, (their adjustment costs), is responsible for the many measured differences in their employment dynamics. Rather than assume that young plants have lower adjustment costs then old plants in an ad hoc fashion, such a difference are derived endogenously by giving managers a choice of organizational technology. Because of their simplicity, competitive models of industry dynamics make stark predictions regarding the effects of demand shocks on prices and quantities. If entry can occur quickly and congestion does not affect costs, then demand shocks have no effect on prices or incumbent plants. In this case, the dynamics of individual producers and that of aggregate variables have no connection with one another. If entry takes time or if congestion increases costs, demand shocks affect both prices and incumbent plants. The second project will determine which competitive model best describes the restaurant industry; and it will provide a more detailed characterization of the response of net entry, average firm size, and other size distribution statistics to a demand shock than can be gained from theory alone. The approach is to identify local demand shocks with local military basing and defense contracts and estimate their impact on restaurant prices and quantities, revealing whether the short run supply curve is flat or increasing.

在理论工作试图理解反周期工作再分配的原因的同时，新的实证工作对所有工作再分配都是反周期的命题提出了质疑。有很好的证据表明，在许多非制造业中，工作重新分配是顺周期的。这一新的就业创造和破坏证据挑战了所有反周期就业重新分配的理论。本研究通过应用竞争性产业的动态微观经济学理论来研究新老植物之间的周期动力学差异，并研究单一服务行业餐饮业的产业动态，以应对这一挑战。本研究由两个项目组成。第一个分析了观察到的幼龄和年老植物在生命周期行为上的差异。假设是，新老植物之间的一个差异，(它们的调整成本)，是它们就业动态中许多可测量的差异的原因。这种差异不是假设年轻植物比老植物有更低的调整成本，而是通过让管理者选择组织技术来内生得出的。由于它们的简单性，行业动态的竞争模型对需求冲击对价格和数量的影响做出了明确的预测。如果进入市场的速度很快，而且拥堵不会影响成本，那么需求冲击就不会对价格或现有工厂产生影响。在这种情况下，个体生产者的动态和集合变量的动态彼此之间没有联系。如果进入需要时间，或者如果拥堵增加了成本，需求冲击会同时影响价格和现有工厂。第二个项目将确定哪个竞争模型最好地描述了餐饮业；它将提供比仅从理论获得的更详细的描述净进入、平均公司规模和其他规模分布统计数据对需求冲击的反应。该方法是通过当地的军事基地和国防合同确定当地需求冲击，并估计它们对餐厅价格和数量的影响，揭示短期供应曲线是持平的还是增加的。