Governing in Turbulent Times: Volatility, Consensus and Uncertainty in Presidential Approval

这项研究测试了美国人对总统的评价在战后是否变得更加不稳定。如果美国公众对总统的评价变得更不稳定，更缺乏共识，更不确定，那么总统就更难以建立和维持立法联盟，将国内行为者团结在外交政策倡议背后，并维持自己的选举联盟。该提案包括两个部分。第一部分探讨了总统支持率的总体、群体和个人基础的变化。这一部分发展了评估总统支持率波动的新方法。第二部分转向波动性对总统在国会取得成功的影响。本研究采用新的方法技术，将民意调查数据与立法点名相结合。这些数据为研究总统和国会的学者提供了新的宝贵资源。

This research tests whether American's evaluations of the president have become more volatile in the postwar era. If the American public has become more volatile, less consensual and more uncertain in their evaluations of the president, it becomes more difficult for presidents to build and maintain legislative coalitions, unify domestic actors behind foreign policy initiatives, and maintain their own electoral coalitions. The proposal has two parts. The first explores changes in aggregate, group and individual bases of presidential approval. This part develops new measures of volatility in assessing Presidential approval. The second part turns toward the consequences of volatility for presidential success in Congress. This study uses new methodological techniques to combine public opinion poll data and legislative roll calls. These data constitute a new and valuable resource for scholars of the Presidency and Congress.