Governing in Turbulent Times: Volatility, Consensus and Uncertainty in Presidential Approval

动荡时期的治理：总统批准的波动性、共识和不确定性

• 批准号: 9730854
• 负责人: Paul Gronke
• 金额: $ 2万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-04-01 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730854&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Governing; Turbulent; Times; Volatility; Consensus

This research tests whether American's evaluations of the president have become more volatile in the postwar era. If the American public has become more volatile, less consensual and more uncertain in their evaluations of the president, it becomes more difficult for presidents to build and maintain legislative coalitions, unify domestic actors behind foreign policy initiatives, and maintain their own electoral coalitions. The proposal has two parts. The first explores changes in aggregate, group and individual bases of presidential approval. This part develops new measures of volatility in assessing Presidential approval. The second part turns toward the consequences of volatility for presidential success in Congress. This study uses new methodological techniques to combine public opinion poll data and legislative roll calls. These data constitute a new and valuable resource for scholars of the Presidency and Congress.

这项研究测试了美国人对总统的评价是否在战后变得更加不稳定。 如果美国公众对总统的评价变得更加不稳定，共识减少，更加不确定，总统就更难建立和维持立法联盟，团结国内行动者支持外交政策倡议，并维持自己的选举联盟。 该提案有两个部分。 第一部分探讨了总统批准的总体、群体和个人基础的变化。 这一部分在评估总统批准方面制定了新的波动性措施。 第二部分转向波动性对总统在国会成功的影响。 本研究采用新的方法论技术，将联合收割机民意调查数据与立法委员点名相结合。 这些数据为总统和国会的学者提供了新的宝贵资源。