Space Weather: Forecasting Relativistic Electron Fluxes at Synchronous Orbit

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This program will utilize some new techniques for predicting the fluxes of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit. This is an important topic in Space Weather because energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit at the "killer electrons" that are capable of damaging or disabling satellites that are place in geostationary orbit. This program will first create a large database on electron fluxes derived from a variety of DoE, NASA, and NOAA satellites. These data will be combined with data on the solar wind, magnetospheric data and ground-based data to produce a correlated database for empirical studies. Mapping functions will then be developed that will transform observations made at an arbitrary local time to local noon. Time series of noon-time fluxes can then be used with a variety of prediction techniques, such as linear predictive filters and neural networks to produce a new predictive capability for the fluxes