Explaining Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

本项目包括六个实验，在实验室中探索信息异质性对资产市场的影响。这是对越来越多的理论文献的首次实证应用，这些理论文献表明，资产泡沫的产生是因为人们对股息有不同的先验信念。贝叶斯学习解释了先前实验数据的重要方面，该项目探索是否可以诱导受试者具有与资产基本面实际分布一致的共同信念。这些治疗方法控制受试者的经历，使用有形的随机化装置，并试图通过展示股息是如何提取的来诱导共同先验。这项研究将对资产价格的一般理论产生重大影响。

This project consists of six experiments exploring the effects of informational heterogeneity on asset markets in the laboratory. It is the first empirical application of a growing theoretical literature showing that asset bubbles arise because people have different prior beliefs about dividends. Bayesian learning explains important aspects of data from previous experiments, and this project explores whether subjects can be induced to have common beliefs agreeing with the actual distribution of an asset's fundamentals. The treatments control subjects' experience, use a tangible randomization device, and attempt to induce common priors by showing how dividends are drawn. This research will have significant implications for a general theory of asset prices.