Dissertation Research: Data, Theories, and Scientific Modeling: Discovery of the Antarctic Ozone 'Hole'

本论文研究项目是对南极臭氧“空洞”发现的历史和哲学调查，旨在确立这样的主张：〜科学模型，而不是理论，才是科学的普遍基础。研究人员打算通过对主要参与者进行口述历史访谈，产生南极臭氧“空洞”发现的全面、客观的历史。该项目与论文的其他两个部分相关。它将为以下研究提供具体的背景：重新评估、完善，或许还挑战了其他两个部分的一些发现，并揭示了理论的认知模型依赖性和建模的认知自主性。本项目未直接支持的论文的其他两个部分重点关注对非启发式、基于模型的科学知识的认识论分析。第一部分研究了关于理论和科学模型的许多公认的和有影响力的哲学立场。阐明抽象理论结构和物理系统之间的联系。这种拟合既不是启发式的，也不是类比式的；因此，第二部分系统地证明了模型和建模是当代遥感背景和更传统的受控实验室实验中数据的本质和收集的基础。已经产生了重要的结果，包括：（i）许多实验工作和计算机模拟的核心问题是区分与感兴趣的现象无关的数据中的实际效果（ii）科学建模通常提供了做出这些决定的唯一有效手段（iii）建模和实验设计之间的认知连续性使得如果对建模的怀疑性攻击是正确的，那么所有传统的科学实验实践和观察都将同样无法产生关于世界的可靠知识主张。建模通常是非启发式的并且具有认知上的创造性。

This dissertation research project is an historical and philosophical investigation of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole', that seeks to establish the claim that ~Scientific models, not theories, are epidemically foundational in science. The researcher intends to produce a comprehensive and objective history of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole" by conducting oral history interviews with the key participants. This project relates to two other sections of the dissertation. It will provide a concrete context for reassessing, refining, and perhaps challenging some of the findings from the two other sections, as well as reveal the epistemic model dependency of theories and epistemic autonomy of modeling. The two other sections of the dissertation, not directly supported by this project focus on an epistemological analysis of non-heuristic, model-based scientific knowledge. The claims and findings being developed and defended challenge many accepted and influential philosophical positions regarding theories and scientific modeling. The first part examines the use of dimensional analysis in articulating the connections between abstract theories structure and physical systems. These connections are established by fitting models to data via dimensional analysis. This fitting is neither heuristic nor analogical; thus, demonstrating that models can function non-heuristically in the production of theoretical knowledge. The second part systematically demonstrates that models and modeling are intrinsic to the nature and collection of data both in contemporary remote-sensing contexts and in more traditional controlled laboratory experimentation. These issues are treated through a detailed analysis of atmospheric modeling central to controversies surrounding global warming. Important results have already been generated, including: (i) The central issue of much experimental work and computer simulation is differentiating real effects in data form artifacts produced by effect irrelevant to phenomena of interest. (ii) Scientific modeling often provides the only effective means for making these determinations. (iii) The epistemic continuities between modeling and experimental design are such that if skeptical attacks on modeling were correct, then all traditional scientific experimental practice and observation would be equally incapable of yielding reliable knowledge claims about the world. (iv) Scientific modeling is typically nonheuristic and epistemically creative.