Dissertation Research: Data, Theories, and Scientific Modeling: Discovery of the Antarctic Ozone 'Hole'

这篇论文的研究项目是对南极臭氧“洞”的发现进行的历史和哲学调查，旨在确立科学模型而不是理论是科学的流行病基础这一主张。研究人员打算通过对主要参与者进行口述历史访谈，制作一部全面、客观的南极臭氧“空洞”发现历史。这个项目涉及到论文的另外两个部分。它将为重新评估、提炼甚至挑战其他两个部分的一些发现提供一个具体的背景，并揭示理论的认知模型依赖性和建模的认知自主性。这篇论文的另外两个部分，没有得到这个项目的直接支持，集中在对非启发式的、基于模型的科学知识的认识论分析上。正在发展和辩护的主张和发现挑战了许多公认的和有影响力的关于理论和科学建模的哲学观点。第一部分考察了维度分析在阐明抽象的理论结构和物理系统之间的联系方面的使用。这些联系是通过量纲分析将模型与数据进行拟合来建立的。这种拟合既不是启发式的，也不是类比的；因此，证明了模型可以在理论知识的生产中发挥非启发式的作用。第二部分系统地论证了无论是在当代遥感背景下还是在更传统的受控实验室实验中，模型和建模对于数据的性质和收集都是固有的。这些问题是通过对围绕全球变暖的争议核心的大气模型的详细分析来处理的。已经产生了重要的结果，包括：(I)许多实验工作和计算机模拟的中心问题是区分由与感兴趣的现象无关的效果产生的数据形式人工产物中的真实效果。(2)科学建模往往是作出这些决定的唯一有效手段。(3)建模和实验设计之间的认知连续性是这样的：如果对建模的怀疑论攻击是正确的，那么所有传统的科学实验实践和观察都将同样不能产生关于世界的可靠知识主张。(4)科学建模通常是非启发式的，在认识论上具有创造性。

This dissertation research project is an historical and philosophical investigation of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole', that seeks to establish the claim that ~Scientific models, not theories, are epidemically foundational in science. The researcher intends to produce a comprehensive and objective history of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole" by conducting oral history interviews with the key participants. This project relates to two other sections of the dissertation. It will provide a concrete context for reassessing, refining, and perhaps challenging some of the findings from the two other sections, as well as reveal the epistemic model dependency of theories and epistemic autonomy of modeling. The two other sections of the dissertation, not directly supported by this project focus on an epistemological analysis of non-heuristic, model-based scientific knowledge. The claims and findings being developed and defended challenge many accepted and influential philosophical positions regarding theories and scientific modeling. The first part examines the use of dimensional analysis in articulating the connections between abstract theories structure and physical systems. These connections are established by fitting models to data via dimensional analysis. This fitting is neither heuristic nor analogical; thus, demonstrating that models can function non-heuristically in the production of theoretical knowledge. The second part systematically demonstrates that models and modeling are intrinsic to the nature and collection of data both in contemporary remote-sensing contexts and in more traditional controlled laboratory experimentation. These issues are treated through a detailed analysis of atmospheric modeling central to controversies surrounding global warming. Important results have already been generated, including: (i) The central issue of much experimental work and computer simulation is differentiating real effects in data form artifacts produced by effect irrelevant to phenomena of interest. (ii) Scientific modeling often provides the only effective means for making these determinations. (iii) The epistemic continuities between modeling and experimental design are such that if skeptical attacks on modeling were correct, then all traditional scientific experimental practice and observation would be equally incapable of yielding reliable knowledge claims about the world. (iv) Scientific modeling is typically nonheuristic and epistemically creative.