Dissertation Research: Data, Theories, and Scientific Modeling: Discovery of the Antarctic Ozone 'Hole'

论文研究：数据、理论和科学建模：南极臭氧层“洞”的发现

• 批准号: 9906266
• 负责人: Frederick Suppe
• 金额: $ 1.03万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-07-15 至 2001-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9906266&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dissertation; Research; Data; Theories; Scientific

This dissertation research project is an historical and philosophical investigation of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole', that seeks to establish the claim that ~Scientific models, not theories, are epidemically foundational in science. The researcher intends to produce a comprehensive and objective history of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone "hole" by conducting oral history interviews with the key participants. This project relates to two other sections of the dissertation. It will provide a concrete context for reassessing, refining, and perhaps challenging some of the findings from the two other sections, as well as reveal the epistemic model dependency of theories and epistemic autonomy of modeling. The two other sections of the dissertation, not directly supported by this project focus on an epistemological analysis of non-heuristic, model-based scientific knowledge. The claims and findings being developed and defended challenge many accepted and influential philosophical positions regarding theories and scientific modeling. The first part examines the use of dimensional analysis in articulating the connections between abstract theories structure and physical systems. These connections are established by fitting models to data via dimensional analysis. This fitting is neither heuristic nor analogical; thus, demonstrating that models can function non-heuristically in the production of theoretical knowledge. The second part systematically demonstrates that models and modeling are intrinsic to the nature and collection of data both in contemporary remote-sensing contexts and in more traditional controlled laboratory experimentation. These issues are treated through a detailed analysis of atmospheric modeling central to controversies surrounding global warming. Important results have already been generated, including: (i) The central issue of much experimental work and computer simulation is differentiating real effects in data form artifacts produced by effect irrelevant to phenomena of interest. (ii) Scientific modeling often provides the only effective means for making these determinations. (iii) The epistemic continuities between modeling and experimental design are such that if skeptical attacks on modeling were correct, then all traditional scientific experimental practice and observation would be equally incapable of yielding reliable knowledge claims about the world. (iv) Scientific modeling is typically nonheuristic and epistemically creative.

本论文研究项目是对南极臭氧层“洞”发现的历史和哲学调查，旨在建立科学模型，而不是理论，在科学中是数学基础。研究人员打算通过与主要参与者进行口述历史访谈，编写一份关于南极臭氧“洞”发现的全面和客观的历史。这个项目涉及到论文的另外两个部分。 它将提供一个具体的背景下，重新评估，精炼，也许挑战的一些结果，从其他两个部分，以及揭示认知模型依赖的理论和认知自主建模。论文的其他两个部分，不直接支持这个项目集中在非启发式的，基于模型的科学知识的认识论分析。正在发展和辩护的主张和发现挑战了许多关于理论和科学建模的公认和有影响力的哲学立场。第一部分考察了维度分析在阐明抽象理论、结构和物理系统之间的联系中的应用。这些连接是通过量纲分析将模型拟合到数据来建立的。这种拟合既不是启发式的，也不是类比的;因此，证明了模型在理论知识的产生中可以发挥非启发性的作用。第二部分系统地证明，无论是在当代遥感背景下还是在更传统的受控实验室实验中，模型和建模都是数据性质和收集所固有的。这些问题是通过对围绕全球变暖的争议的大气模型的详细分析来处理的。重要的结果已经产生，包括：（i）许多实验工作和计算机模拟的中心问题是区分真实的效果的数据形式的影响无关的现象所产生的文物。(ii)科学建模往往是做出这些决定的唯一有效手段。(iii)建模和实验设计之间的认知连续性是这样的，如果对建模的怀疑攻击是正确的，那么所有传统的科学实验实践和观察都同样无法产生关于世界的可靠知识主张。(iv)科学建模是典型的非启发式和知识创造性。