Forecasting Arctic Vegetation: The Interaction Between Surface Disturbance and Climate Change

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This three-year study will investigate the impact that anthropogenic disturbance has on tundra land cover near Barrow Alaska. Based on photographs made over the last 50 years, anthropogenic disturbances will be documented and the evolving response by plant communities will be chronicled. Additional tests concerning the resilience and resistance of principal tundra plant communities will be examined using manipulation experiments within experimental plots. The data developed from this study will be made available in a Geographic Information System format. The concepts and parameters obtained will then be used in a geographically based Arctic System Land Transformation Model in order to examine the possible impacts of man's expanding use of the Alaskan tundra. Undergraduate students from the Barrow community will be utilized as research assistants. This project will directly link with ongoing studies of the climatological and vegetation transformations occurring in the Arctic tundra.