Doctoral Dissertation Research: Integrated Assessment and Projection of Land-Use/Cover Change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico

博士论文研究：墨西哥尤卡坦半岛南部地区土地利用/覆盖变化的综合评估和预测

• 批准号: 9907952
• 负责人: B. Turner
• 金额: $ 0.54万
• 依托单位: Clark University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-09-01 至 2001-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9907952&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Integrated; Assessment

Global environmental change confronts humankind in many importantways. Tropical deforestation is one of the most pressing problems becauseof its significant roles as a source and sink of greenhouse gases, adepository of biotic diversity, a determinant of local climate, and as theresource base for a rapidly growing population worldwide. Much of the workon tropical deforestation to date has focused on science independent ofpolicy relevance. The proposed research seeks to redress this situation.It develops an explicitly policy-oriented model to project trends andscenarios of tropical deforestation for one of the remaining large blocks oftropical forests in southern Mexico. As this area is subject to growingimmigration and resource extraction, resource managers and institutions are faced with a bewildering array of immediate and longer term decisions. The model therefore considers deforestation as the result of peasant farmerdecision making in the context of an array of complex biophysical andsocioeconomic environments. A new type of simulation model will bedeveloped, one that captures the "reality" of the situation but yet providesoutputs that are policy relevant. The model does so by: (1) examining howindividual decision making is affected by environmental and socioeconomicconstraints; (2) incorporating explicit spatial and temporal patterns offorest change; (3) assessing the role of the value of information anduncertainty; and (4) permitting stakeholders and policy makers to evaluatescenarios of alternative land-use and institutional strategies. The modelis not conceptually derived but based on household surveys, archivalresearch, and spatial data including aerial photography, satellite imagery,and maps of land-use and biophysical characteristics.

全球环境变化是人类面临的重要问题。 热带森林砍伐是最紧迫的问题之一，因为它作为温室气体的源和汇、生物多样性的储藏地、当地气候的决定因素以及全世界迅速增长的人口的资源基础，发挥着重要作用。 迄今为止，关于热带森林砍伐的大部分工作都集中在科学上，而与政策无关。 拟议中的研究旨在纠正这种情况。它开发了一个明确的政策导向模型，以预测墨西哥南部热带森林剩余大块之一的热带森林砍伐趋势和情景。 由于这一领域受到不断增长的移民和资源开采的影响，资源管理者和机构面临着一系列令人困惑的短期和长期决策。 因此，该模型认为森林砍伐是农民在一系列复杂的生物物理和社会经济环境中做出决策的结果。 将开发一种新型的模拟模型，这种模型既能捕捉“现实”情况，又能提供与政策相关的产出。 该模型通过以下方式做到这一点：（1）研究个人决策如何受到环境和社会经济限制的影响;（2）纳入森林变化的明确的空间和时间模式;（3）评估信息价值和不确定性的作用;（4）允许利益相关者和政策制定者评估替代土地使用和制度战略的情景。 该模型不是从概念上推导出来的，而是基于住户调查、档案研究和空间数据，包括航空摄影、卫星图像以及土地使用和生物物理特征图。