Axioms for Overcoming Resistance to Decision Based Design

克服基于决策的设计阻力的公理

• 批准号: 9908406
• 负责人: Deborah Thurston
• 金额: $ 32.45万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-12-01 至 2003-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9908406&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Axioms; Overcoming; Resistance; Decision; Based

This grant provides funding for the development of a new procedure for design decision making. Currently, design engineers make tradeoff decisions using a wide variety of procedures. Many of these procedures are loosely structured, and rely heavily on one or two individual's expert opinion. These procedures have worked reasonably well in the past, but have become inadequate as the design process has become more complex. This project will develop a set of axioms or procedures that will address issues raised in team design projects, tradeoffs under uncertainty, and consideration of "externalities" such as environmental impacts. Specifically, procedures will be developed for fully employing the information contained in a utility function during two critical stages: synthesis to create alternatives, and analysis to develop each alternative to its fullest potential. Focus areas will be the independence conditions, attribute definition, the functional multi-attribute form, and biases in assessing uncertainties and preferences. If successful, this project will help transform design decision analysis from an art to a science. The benefits will be realized by a broad range of design engineers, rather than by only specialists in decision analysis. During the design process, effort will be focussed where the potential payoff is greatest. Product design and development will take less time, since effort will be directed at synthesis and analytic tasks which contribute most to overall product utility. Nonlinear preferences and willingness to make tradeoffs will be modeled precisely, and the effect of uncertainty will be included in a rational, consistent manner. Customers will then be presented with products that better meet their conflicting needs for high performance, high quality, low cost, and low environmental impact.

这项奖助金为设计决策的新程序的发展提供资金。目前，设计工程师使用各种各样的程序做出权衡决策。其中许多程序结构松散，严重依赖一两个人的专家意见。这些程序在过去相当有效，但随着设计过程变得更加复杂，它们就变得不够用了。这个项目将开发一套公理或程序，这些公理或程序将处理团队设计项目中提出的问题，不确定性下的权衡，以及考虑“外部性”，例如环境影响。具体地说，将制订程序，以便在两个关键阶段充分利用效用函数所载的资料：综合以创造备选方案，分析以发展每一备选方案的最大潜力。重点领域将是独立性条件，属性定义，功能多属性形式，以及评估不确定性和偏好的偏差。如果成功，这个项目将有助于将设计决策分析从一门艺术转变为一门科学。这些好处将被广泛的设计工程师所实现，而不仅仅是决策分析方面的专家。在设计过程中，努力将集中在潜在回报最大的地方。产品设计和开发将花费更少的时间，因为精力将集中在对整体产品效用贡献最大的综合和分析任务上。非线性偏好和做出权衡的意愿将被精确地建模，不确定性的影响将以一种理性的、一致的方式被包括在内。然后，客户将获得更好地满足他们对高性能、高质量、低成本和低环境影响的相互冲突的需求的产品。