SGER: Real Time Multi-model Superensemble Forecasts for Atlantic Hurricanes of 1999

该奖项是作为探索性研究的小额赠款。 克里希那穆提博士将扩展一些有趣的初步工作，使用多模式超级天气预报来预测飓风的路径和强度。 该方法使用简单的回归过程将多个模型的过去性能与观察到的“分析”状态相关联。 所有的多模型的结果回归相对于此分析的控制期，然后统计数据应用于预测期，并产生一个加权组合，这是超级。 在最初的工作中，超级模型的表现总是优于单个模型的预测。 根据该奖项，克里希那穆提博士将实时进行超级天气预报，作为对该方法的进一步测试。 在1999年飓风季节结束后，他和他的同事们将分析和评估1999年的超级飓风预报，并探讨在超级飓风预报中使用统计方法而不是简单回归的有效性。

The award is being made as a Small Grant for Exploratory Research. Dr. Krishnamurti will extend some intriguing preliminary work on the use of multi-model superensemble forecasts for the prediction of hurricane track and intensity. The method relates the past performance of the multiple models to an observed "analysis" state using a simple regression procedure. All of the multi-model results are regressed with respect to this analysis for a control period and then the statistics are applied to a forecast period and a weighted combination is produced which is the superensemble. In the initial work, the superensemble has always outperformed the individual model forecasts. Under this award, Dr. Krishnamurti will carry out the superensemble forecasts in real-time as a further test of the method. After the 1999 operational hurricane season is over, he and his colleagues will analyze and evaluate the 1999 superensemble forecasts and explore the efficacy of using statistical methods other than simple regression in their superensemble forecasts.