Theory for the Dynamics of Coral Reef Fishes with Applications to Hypothesis Testing

最近对珊瑚礁鱼类生态的综合研究鼓励了对种群和群落动态机制的多元化看法，其中幼体供应的变化和定居时或定居后依赖密度的相互作用都有望产生重要影响。用来发展规模转换和储存效应概念的理论模型表明，幼虫供应和密度依赖的变化应该对种群和群落动态产生交互作用，例如，以幼虫供应变化和密度依赖的单独影响无法预测的方式，在大空间尺度上稳定种群动态和维持多样性。这种相互作用对实验和观测数据的能力也有重要的影响，以(1)检测密度依赖，(2)确定种群调节的规模和机制，以及(3)为珊瑚礁系统的高度生物多样性提供有意义的解释。本项目将开发一个珊瑚礁鱼类系统的集合种群模型，其中包括人口速率的随机变化，补充的时空变化，本地种群内的阶段结构，以及多物种密度依赖的相互作用。这一模型将提供一个一般理论框架，可用于提出关于珊瑚礁-鱼类系统固有的多种过程和规模的综合影响的假设。这些影响将结合人口密度、人口调节和维持多样性等重要成果进行研究。将开发具体的预测作为诊断工具，以了解珊瑚礁鱼类系统中可观察到的模式如何与当地和集合种群规模上的基本过程有关。将在制定可在现场检验的具体实验假设方面花费大量努力。

Recent syntheses of coral reef fish ecology encourage a pluralistic view of mechanisms of population and community dynamics where variation in larval supply and density dependent interactions at or after settlement are both expected to have important effects. Theoretical models used to develop the concepts of the scale transition and the storage effect imply that variation in larval supply and density dependence should have interactive effects on population and community dynamics leading, for example, to stabilization of population dynamics and maintenance of diversity on large spatial scales in ways that would not be predicted from the separate effects of variation in larval supply and density dependence. Such interactions also have important consequences for the ability of experimental and observational data to (1) detect density dependence, (2) identify the scales and mechanisms of population regulation, and (3) offer meaningful explanations for the high biological diversity of coral reef systems.This project will development a metapopulation model of reef fish systems that incorporates stochastic variation in demographic rates, spatio-temporal variation in recruitment, stage-structure within local populations, and multispecies density-dependent interactions. This model will provide a general theoretical framework useful for developing hypotheses about the combined effects of the multiple processes and scales inherent to reef-fish systems. These effects will be studied in relation to important outcomes such as population density, population regulation and diversity maintenance. Specific predictions will be developed as diagnostic tools for understanding how observable patterns in reef fish systems are related to the underlying processes on both local and metapopulation scales. Significant effort will be expended on formulating specific experimental hypotheses that can be tested in the field.