Theory for the Dynamics of Coral Reef Fishes with Applications to Hypothesis Testing

最近对珊瑚礁鱼类生态学的综合研究鼓励了对种群和群落动态机制的多元观点，其中幼虫供应的变化和定居时或定居后依赖密度的相互作用都预计会产生重要影响。用于发展尺度转换和储存效应概念的理论模型表明，幼虫供应和密度依赖的变化应该对种群和群落动态产生相互作用，例如，在大空间尺度上导致种群动态的稳定和多样性的维持，这是幼虫供应和密度依赖变化的单独影响无法预测的。这种相互作用也对实验和观测数据(1)检测密度依赖性，(2)确定种群调节的规模和机制，以及(3)为珊瑚礁系统的高生物多样性提供有意义的解释的能力产生重要影响。该项目将开发一个珊瑚鱼系统的超种群模型，该模型结合了人口统计率的随机变化、招募的时空变化、当地种群的阶段结构和多物种密度依赖的相互作用。该模型将提供一个通用的理论框架，有助于发展关于珊瑚礁-鱼类系统固有的多重过程和鳞片的综合效应的假设。这些影响将与人口密度、人口调节和多样性维持等重要结果进行研究。将开发具体的预测作为诊断工具，以了解珊瑚鱼系统中可观察到的模式如何与本地和超种群尺度上的潜在过程相关。将作出重大努力，制订可在实地检验的具体实验假设。

Recent syntheses of coral reef fish ecology encourage a pluralistic view of mechanisms of population and community dynamics where variation in larval supply and density dependent interactions at or after settlement are both expected to have important effects. Theoretical models used to develop the concepts of the scale transition and the storage effect imply that variation in larval supply and density dependence should have interactive effects on population and community dynamics leading, for example, to stabilization of population dynamics and maintenance of diversity on large spatial scales in ways that would not be predicted from the separate effects of variation in larval supply and density dependence. Such interactions also have important consequences for the ability of experimental and observational data to (1) detect density dependence, (2) identify the scales and mechanisms of population regulation, and (3) offer meaningful explanations for the high biological diversity of coral reef systems.This project will development a metapopulation model of reef fish systems that incorporates stochastic variation in demographic rates, spatio-temporal variation in recruitment, stage-structure within local populations, and multispecies density-dependent interactions. This model will provide a general theoretical framework useful for developing hypotheses about the combined effects of the multiple processes and scales inherent to reef-fish systems. These effects will be studied in relation to important outcomes such as population density, population regulation and diversity maintenance. Specific predictions will be developed as diagnostic tools for understanding how observable patterns in reef fish systems are related to the underlying processes on both local and metapopulation scales. Significant effort will be expended on formulating specific experimental hypotheses that can be tested in the field.