Paleoseismologic Investigation of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey: Towards a Long Term Record of Patterns of Strain Release in Time and Space

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EAR-9980564This project will develop three high-resolution paleoseismologic trench sites on the central and eastern North Anatolian fault (NAF) in northern Turkey. These data will be used to begin construction of a space-time history of seismic moment release along the NAF during the past several thousand years (5 to 10 earthquake cycles). The space-time history will in turn be used to test various competing models of earthquake occurrence, with the ultimate goal of either supporting or rejecting basic claims about the physical mechanisms underlying these patterns. For example, do large earthquakes occur randomly in time, or are they quasi-periodic? Do ruptures tend to initiate and terminate at the same locations time after time? Do large earthquakes cluster in time? As yet, such paleoseismologic data sets exist for only a few faults around the world (e.g., Wahsatch and San Andreas). For scientific and logistical reasons, the NAF is one of the world's best faults on which to undertake such studies. The great length (1500 km), large cumulative slip (90 km), and rapid slip rate (~20 mm/yr) demonstrate that the NAF is comparable to other major continental strike-slip fault systems.