Collaborative Research: Punctuated Equilibrium, Ripeness, and Conflict Resolution of International Rivalries

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This research develops a theory of large policy change, with specific application to conflict resolution of international rivalries. The theory of large policy change is itself part of the punctuated equilibrium approach to policy. The model will first address two key concepts in the conflict resolution and policy literature namely "ripeness" and "window of opportunity." The research formalizes and tests models that incorporate window of opportunity variables and uses the window of opportunity concept to conceptualize ripeness. From the general policy model, the investigators derive a sub-model that applies to the resolution of long-standing interstate conflicts which yields testable propositions that can be examined in the context of enduring rivalries and a representative sample of lesser state rivalries. Specific outcomes of the project include: 1) a formal theory of punctuated equilibrium models; 2) a specific model of large policy change; 3) rigorous specification of the window of opportunity and ripeness concepts; 4) a punctuated equilibrium model of international rivalry resolution; 5) new data on conflict resolution compatible with the most widely used data set on interstate rivalries; and, 6) a series of empirical analyses on the conditions associated with conflict resolution in rivalries over the period 1816-1992.This investigation promises to enhance substantially our understanding of the topic and to provide a database for use by a large number of scholars interested in the topic.