Collaborative Research: Punctuated Equilibrium, Ripeness, and Conflict Resolution of International Rivalries

合作研究：国际竞争的间断均衡、成熟度和冲突解决

• 批准号: 0004279
• 负责人: Paul Diehl
• 金额: $ 4.5万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-02-15 至 2004-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0004279&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Punctuated; Equilibrium; Ripeness

This research develops a theory of large policy change, with specific application to conflict resolution of international rivalries. The theory of large policy change is itself part of the punctuated equilibrium approach to policy. The model will first address two key concepts in the conflict resolution and policy literature namely "ripeness" and "window of opportunity." The research formalizes and tests models that incorporate window of opportunity variables and uses the window of opportunity concept to conceptualize ripeness. From the general policy model, the investigators derive a sub-model that applies to the resolution of long-standing interstate conflicts which yields testable propositions that can be examined in the context of enduring rivalries and a representative sample of lesser state rivalries. Specific outcomes of the project include: 1) a formal theory of punctuated equilibrium models; 2) a specific model of large policy change; 3) rigorous specification of the window of opportunity and ripeness concepts; 4) a punctuated equilibrium model of international rivalry resolution; 5) new data on conflict resolution compatible with the most widely used data set on interstate rivalries; and, 6) a series of empirical analyses on the conditions associated with conflict resolution in rivalries over the period 1816-1992.This investigation promises to enhance substantially our understanding of the topic and to provide a database for use by a large number of scholars interested in the topic.

这项研究发展了一种大政策变化理论，具体应用于解决国际竞争的冲突。 大政策变化理论本身就是间断均衡政策方法的一部分。 该模型将首先解决冲突解决和政策文献中的两个关键概念，即“成熟度”和“机会之窗”。 该研究形式化并测试了包含机会窗口变量的模型，并使用机会窗口概念来概念化成熟度。 从一般政策模型中，调查人员得出了一个适用于解决长期存在的国家间冲突的子模型，该子模型产生了可测试的命题，可以在持久竞争和较小国家竞争的代表性样本的背景下进行检验。 该项目的具体成果包括：1）间断均衡模型的正式理论； 2）大政策变化的具体模型； 3）严格规范机会之窗和成熟度概念； 4）国际竞争解决的间断均衡模型； 5）关于冲突解决的新数据与最广泛使用的州际竞争数据集兼容； 6）对 1816 年至 1992 年期间与竞争中的冲突解决相关的条件进行了一系列实证分析。这项研究有望大大增强我们对这一主题的理解，并提供一个数据库供对此主题感兴趣的大量学者使用。