Extratropical Linkages to Tropical Cyclone Activity
温带与热带气旋活动的联系
基本信息
- 批准号:0086958
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 20.62万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:2000
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2000-11-15 至 2004-10-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
The research will increase knowledge of tropical cyclone activity by systematically investigating high latitude linkages to tropical cyclone and hurricane activity. The goals are (i) to identify and predict the most important components of US interannual hurricane variability; and (ii) to describe and predict annual to decadal variability of US hurricane landfall probabilities conditioned on climate anomalies. A new dynamic probability model will be used to answer 'what if' questions concerning the regional likelihood of hurricanes conditioned on large-scale climate anomalies. The method of empirical orthogonal teleconnections will be modified to describe and predict the dominant covariability patterns of hurricanes along the US coastline. Factor analysis and change-point models will also be used. The PI and his group have made several breakthroughs in understanding hurricane and typhoon activity as it relates to climate. The essential theme has been that space-time variability in tropical cyclone activity is related to climate processes operating both within and outside the Tropics. The work is important because the perspective that extratropical climate anomalies play an important role in modulating tropical cyclone activity is new, and has the potential to significantly alter understanding of global climate processes.
这项研究将通过系统地调查高纬度与热带气旋和飓风活动的联系来增加对热带气旋活动的了解。目标是(I)识别和预测美国飓风年际变化的最重要组成部分;以及(Ii)描述和预测美国飓风登陆概率的年度到年代际变化,条件是气候异常。一种新的动态概率模型将被用来回答有关大规模气候异常条件下区域发生飓风的可能性的假设问题。经验正交遥相关方法将被修改,以描述和预测美国海岸线飓风的主要协变模式。还将使用因子分析和变点模型。PI和他的团队在理解飓风和台风活动与气候有关方面取得了几项突破。重要的主题是,热带气旋活动的时空变异性与热带内外的气候过程有关。这项工作之所以重要,是因为温带气候异常在调节热带气旋活动方面发挥重要作用的观点是新的,并有可能显著改变对全球气候过程的理解。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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James Elsner其他文献
James Elsner的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('James Elsner', 18)}}的其他基金
Sensitivity of Extreme Hurricane Winds to Climate Change
极端飓风对气候变化的敏感性
- 批准号:
0738172 - 财政年份:2008
- 资助金额:
$ 20.62万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change; Crete, Greece; May 27-June 1, 2007
飓风和气候变化峰会;
- 批准号:
0650640 - 财政年份:2007
- 资助金额:
$ 20.62万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Anticipating Extreme Hurricane Winds in the United States Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models
使用贝叶斯分层模型预测美国的极端飓风
- 批准号:
0435628 - 财政年份:2005
- 资助金额:
$ 20.62万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Modulating Major Hurricane Activity in the U.S. on Interannual to Millennial Timescales
合作研究:北大西洋涛动(NAO)在年际至千年时间尺度上调节美国主要飓风活动中的作用
- 批准号:
0213980 - 财政年份:2002
- 资助金额:
$ 20.62万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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合作研究:使用非线性经验模型进行气候诊断和预测
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9310715 - 财政年份:1993
- 资助金额:
$ 20.62万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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