Collaborative Research: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Modulating Major Hurricane Activity in the U.S. on Interannual to Millennial Timescales

合作研究：北大西洋涛动（NAO）在年际至千年时间尺度上调节美国主要飓风活动中的作用

• 批准号: 0213980
• 负责人: James Elsner
• 金额: $ 13.22万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-01 至 2005-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0213980&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Role; North; Atlantic

Records from the 20th century indicate considerable variations in coastal hurricane activity along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines of North America. A decade of strong hurricanes on the Gulf coast is followed by a decade of severe hurricanes on the East coast. Preliminary research suggests that these cycles are related to the location and strength of the subtropical Atlantic high-pressure cell (Bermuda High), perhaps controlled by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). To explore the dynamics of these relationships, it is necessary to consider records of past hurricane activity that predate the 20th century. This research project will examine the role of the Bermuda High and the North Atlantic Oscillation in modulating major U.S. coastal hurricane activity on time scales ranging from the inter-annual to the millennial. Lakes and marshes along the Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico coast will be cored, and the overwash sand deposits preserved in these coastal sediments will be studied to produce proxy records of past hurricane activity. These geological records and evidence from historical documents will be collated with the modern instrumental records using geographic information systems (GIS) and statistics. Past climate patterns will be inferred from measured and proxy indices. The objectives of this project are to better understand climate patterns associated with variations in coastal hurricane activity and to improve return-period estimates of catastrophic events. GIS will be used to collate the disparate historical archives into an electronic document. Statistical models will be used to distinguish periods of activity from inactivity locally and regionally. A probabilistic framework will be adopted to capture the varying levels of uncertainty in the data.Strong hurricanes have enormous societal impact. High winds, heavy rain, and storm surge combine to create a catastrophic threat to life and property. Coastal populations are growing faster than the population at large, thereby continually accentuating problem associated with strong hurricanes. Careful examination of historical documents and fresh geological evidence gathered from Cape Cod and the Gulf coast through this project will provide valuable clues about the regularity of hurricanes in the distant past. A careful study of these records will result in new knowledge about the relationship between climate variability and hurricane frequency, which will lead to a better understanding of the future threat of a hurricane disaster in the United States and nearby nations.

20世纪以来的记录表明，北美墨西哥湾和大西洋沿岸的沿海飓风活动有相当大的变化。墨西哥湾沿岸的十年强飓风之后是东海岸的十年强飓风。初步研究表明，这些周期与副热带大西洋高压单体（百慕大高压）的位置和强度有关，可能受北大西洋涛动（NAO）强度的控制。为了探索这些关系的动态，有必要考虑20世纪以前的飓风活动记录。该研究项目将研究百慕大高压和北大西洋涛动在从年际到千年的时间尺度上对美国主要沿海飓风活动的调节作用。大西洋沿岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的湖泊和沼泽将被取芯，研究人员将研究保存在这些沿海沉积物中的冲积砂沉积物，以产生过去飓风活动的代用记录。这些地质记录和历史文献的证据将与使用地理信息系统（GIS）和统计学的现代仪器记录进行核对。过去的气候模式将从测量和代理指数中推断出来。该项目的目的是更好地了解与沿海飓风活动变化有关的气候模式，并改进对灾难性事件的回归期估计。地理信息系统将用于将不同的历史档案整理成电子文件。统计模型将用于区分当地和区域的活动时期和不活动时期。将采用概率框架来捕捉数据中不同程度的不确定性。强飓风具有巨大的社会影响。强风、暴雨和风暴潮共同构成了对生命财产的灾难性威胁。沿海人口的增长速度超过了总体人口的增长速度，因此不断加剧了与强飓风有关的问题。通过该项目对历史文献和从科德角和墨西哥湾沿岸收集到的最新地质证据进行仔细研究，将为了解遥远过去飓风的规律性提供有价值的线索。对这些记录的仔细研究将使我们对气候变化和飓风频率之间的关系有新的认识，这将使我们更好地了解未来飓风灾害对美国和附近国家的威胁。