Collaborative Research: The Economics of Creativity

在整个生命周期中，生产力遵循一个驼峰形状。经济学家已经建立了生命周期人力资本积累模型来解释这一模式，在剩余职业生涯最长的年轻时期，人力资本投资的动机最强。心理学家注意到了同样的生命周期模式，但将其归因于吸收和产生新想法的能力的生命周期变化。根据这一观点，最初接触某一领域时，个人的思维模式是高度灵活的，但随着接触(以某一领域的经验衡量)的积累，现有的思维模式变得更加强大，以不同的方式思考变得越来越困难。因此，如果经济学家将生产率的生命周期变化归因于获取新技能的动机的变化，心理学家则强调了吸收新概念的能力的差异。在我们之前工作的基础上，一项试点分析表明，在一系列领域中，工作通过实验进化的创造者在较年长的时候完成了他们最重要的工作，但那些贡献是概念性的，他们在非常年轻的时候就完成了他们的工作。虽然后期的高峰与人力资本模型一致，但不可能将职业生涯开始时的峰值与人力资本模型相协调。对于20多岁或30多岁的人来说，职业的有限性对投资新技能的动机影响微乎其微。人力资本模型也没有为这些群体之间的显著差异提供自然的解释。这一提议提出了一个新的生命周期生产力模型，该模型利用了改变思维模式的能力不断下降的特点。根据这个模型，理论家最重要的贡献是在他们职业生涯开始时最常见的，因为他们的工作建立在快速重新概念化的基础上，这很可能是在现有的思维模式得到加强之前。经验性工作(同等重要)源于知识体系的逐步积累，因此不断重新概念化问题的能力就不那么重要了。我们将使用在包括科学、艺术和商业在内的一系列学科的资金项下收集的数据来测试这些预测。随着受教育程度的提高和对科学在生产中的更大依赖，相对于人力资本而言，创新能力正成为决定收入的一个越来越重要的因素，这使得这种分析时有发生。适应变化的能力影响着对技术变革带来的工作变化的反应。该模式意味着，需要重新概念化工作的新技术的采用在年轻工人中将是最大的，但老年工人将大量采用利用现有知识的新技术。在整个生命周期中，适应变化的能力有所下降，这代表了一种新的复古人力资本效应，我们将使用计算机采用的数据来对照传统的复古效应进行测试。拟议的模式还为职业结构中的性别差异和老年工人的职业流动提供了新的解释。

Productivity follows a hump shape over the lifecycle. Economists have developed models of lifecycle human capital accumulation to explain this pattern the incentive to invest in human capital is greatest at young ages when the remaining career is longest. Psychologists have noted the same lifecycle pattern but have attributed it to lifecycle variations in the ability to assimilate and produce new ideas. According to this view, at first exposure to a field, individuals' thought patterns are highly flexible, but as exposure (measured by experience in an area) accumulates, existing thought patterns become reinforced making it increasingly difficulty to think in different ways. Thus, if economists attribute lifecycle variations in productivity to changes in the incentives to acquire new skills, psychologists have emphasized variations in the ability to assimilate new concepts.Building on our previous work, a pilot analysis shows that across a range of fields, creators whose work evolved through experimentation, do their most important work at older ages, but that those whose contributions were conceptual, did theirs while quite young. While the late peaks are consistent with the human capital model, it is impossible to reconcile a peak at the beginning of the career with the human capital model. For someone in their 20s or 30s, the finiteness of the career has a trivial effect on the incentive to invest in new skills. Nor does the human capital model provide a natural explanation for the striking differences between these groups.This proposal presents a new model of lifecycle productivity that draws on a declining ability to change thought patterns. According to this model, theorists' most important contributions are most common at the beginning of their careers because their work is based on quick re-conceptualizations, which are most likely before existing thought patterns have become reinforced. Empirical work (of equal importance) derives from the gradual accumulation of a body of knowledge, so the ability to re-conceptualize issues continually is less important. We will test these predictions using data collected under funding on a range of disciplines, including the sciences, arts, and business. With the increase in educational attainment and the greater reliance of science in production, the ability to innovate is becoming an increasingly important determinant of earnings relative to human capital, making this analysis timely.The ability to adapt to change affects the response to changes in work brought on by technological change. The model implies that the adoption of new technologies that require re-conceptualizations of work will be greatest among young workers, but that old workers will heavily adopt new technologies that draw on existing knowledge. A decline over the lifecycle in the ability to adapt to change represents a new form of vintage human capital effect, which we will test against traditional vintage effects using data on computer adoption. The proposed model also provides new explanations for gender differences in the occupation structure and for the occupational mobility of older workers.