The response of seismogenic faults to natural and human-induced changes in loads on Earth's surface - a numerical modelling approach

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The repeated release of elastic strain energy on seismogenic faults has early inspired quasiperiodic models of earthquake recurrence. An increasing number of palaeoseismologic studies have revealed, however, that many faults exhibit pronounced temporal variations in earthquake recurrence despite unchanged plate-tectonic boundary conditions. The underlying causes for such a behaviour of faults remain enigmatic, although they are likely related to a temporally changing stress field in the crust. The main goal of the Junior Research Group will be to evaluate to what extent variations in fault behaviour ¿ in particular the temporal clustering of earthquakes ¿ are provoked by the redistribution of mass on Earth`s surface. Redistribution of mass may result from natural processes such as sea level changes, landslides, or the advance and retreat of glaciers and from human activity like excavation of quarries and construction of dams. These processes may alter the crustal state of stress such that earthquakes are either promoted or retarded. Three-dimensional finite-element models including discrete faults in a rheologically layered lithosphere will allow to quantify the effects of surface changes on the behaviour of single faults and arrays of interacting faults. Emphasis will be put on implementing realistic rheologies and applying innovative techniques to model failure and fault propagation.