GOALI: Robust Product Design Selection under Uncertainty and for Competitive Advantage

目标：在不确定性和竞争优势下进行稳健的产品设计选择

• 批准号: 0200029
• 负责人: Shapour Azarm
• 金额: $ 32.71万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-06-01 至 2005-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0200029&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: GOALI; Robust; Product; Design; Selection

The objective of this research is to (1) develop an integrated framework and methodology to aid robust selection of product designs, either a single product or a product line, taking into account the uncertainties in measuring customer preferences, uncertainties due to changing preferences over time, uncertainties in competitive reactions, and uncertainty in uncontrollable engineering design parameters, and based on this framework (2) construct and validate a prototype decision support system. In the proposed approach, the product/product-line design selection is viewed as a selection with two main stages: design alternative generation and design alternative evaluation. In the first stage (design module), commonality information, along with uncertainty in the engineering design formulation, is fed into a multi-objective robust optimization to generate a Pareto robust optimal set of design alternatives. In the second stage (market module), demand and market share estimates are generated for each alternative in the set by accounting for customer preferences and choices. Based on the demand function and commonality, cost functions are calculated for each generated design alternative and are used to compute the net present value of profit for each alternative. A recursive process between the two modules will be undertaken to account for the uncertainty in uncontrollable parameters in both modules using simulation methods and to obtain a robust set of recommendations. If successful, the outcome of this research will advance the state of the art across different domains in engineering design, marketing science and management. The results of this investigation will be broadly disseminated in the engineering design automation and marketing science communities, the knowledge integrated into courses at the University of Maryland, and the technology and techniques transferred to industry. The proposed research will also provide opportunities for students to learn business and engineering practices involved in product design selection and ways to enhance the effectiveness of such practices through basic research.

本研究的目的是：(1)开发一个集成的框架和方法，以帮助产品设计的稳健选择，无论是单一产品还是产品线，考虑到测量客户偏好的不确定性，由于偏好随时间变化而变化的不确定性，竞争反应的不确定性，以及不可控工程设计参数的不确定性；并在此基础上构建并验证了一个原型决策支持系统。在建议的方法中，产品/产品线设计选择被视为两个主要阶段的选择：设计备选方案生成和设计备选方案评估。在第一阶段（设计模块），将共性信息与工程设计公式中的不确定性一起输入到多目标鲁棒优化中，生成Pareto鲁棒优化设计方案集。在第二阶段（市场模块）中，通过考虑客户偏好和选择，为集合中的每个备选方案生成需求和市场份额估计。基于需求函数和共性，计算每个生成的设计方案的成本函数，并用于计算每个方案的净利润现值。将在两个模块之间进行递归过程，以利用模拟方法解释两个模块中不可控参数的不确定性，并获得一组可靠的建议。如果成功，这项研究的结果将推动工程设计、营销科学和管理等不同领域的技术进步。这项调查的结果将在工程设计、自动化和市场科学社区广泛传播，知识将被整合到马里兰大学的课程中，技术和技术将被转移到工业中。建议的研究也将提供机会，让学生学习产品设计选择的商业和工程实践，以及如何通过基础研究提高这些实践的有效性。