Collaborative Research: Mid-Latitude Modes of Climate Variability

合作研究：中纬度气候变化模式

• 批准号: 0221066
• 负责人: Michael Ghil
• 金额: $ 42.94万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-15 至 2006-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0221066&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Mid; Latitude; Modes

0221066/0220700 Ghil/DewarIt is proposed to study coupled mid-latitude climate variability on decadal and longer time scales. The main hypothesis is that a critical component of this variability arises from intrinsic ocean sources. This hypothesis will be analyzed using a numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, focusing on the oceans' wind-driven variability, rather than on that of the thermohaline circulation. An intermediate complexity model is ideally suited to test this hypothesis. The model consists of an oceanic and an atmospheric component, each of which captures the turbulent nature of the corresponding fluid. The new feature of our proposal is in coupling these two models, and analyzing the nature of the coupled turbulence that results. To achieve turbulence simultaneously in the two fluids requires working with reduced models of each. One fundamental problem faced by more dynamically complete models in achieving this same goal is insufficient computer power. Parameterization of small-scale oceanic variability as a feedback on the ocean's general circulation and on climate thus stands as a critical problem for understanding and predicting coupled climate variability. Initial steps will be taken towards formulating such parameterizations and testing them within this model. Coupled general circulation models also face the problem that the phenomenology of coupled behavior is not currently known, thus complicating the analysis and interpretation of model results. This work will contribute to a solution of this problem by providing a conceptual paradigm for coupled system behavior. The intellectual merit of this proposal is to analyze a viable hypothesis relevant to the coupled climate problem on inter-decadal timescales. The broader impacts of the work lie in developing scientific partnerships between two leading institutions (UCLA and FSU) in this field, broadly disseminating the results of our work by means of publications, seminars and presentations at national and international meetings, and addressing a problem of crucial societal importance in climate prediction.

0221066/0220700 Ghil/Dewar建议在十年和更长的时间尺度上研究耦合的中纬度气候变率。主要的假设是，这种变化的一个关键组成部分来自内在的海洋来源。将使用海洋-大气耦合系统的数值模型对这一假设进行分析，重点是海洋的风驱动变化，而不是温盐环流的变化。一个中等复杂性模型非常适合检验这一假设。该模型由海洋和大气组成，每一个都捕获了相应流体的湍流性质。我们的建议的新特点是在耦合这两个模型，并分析耦合湍流的性质，结果。为了在两种流体中同时实现湍流，需要使用每种流体的简化模型。一个基本问题所面临的更动态完整的模型，在实现这一目标是不够的计算机能力。因此，作为海洋环流和气候反馈的小尺度海洋变率的参数化是理解和预测耦合气候变率的一个关键问题。将采取初步步骤，制定这种参数化，并在这一模式内进行测试。耦合大气环流模式还面临着这样一个问题，即耦合行为的现象学目前还不为人所知，从而使模式结果的分析和解释复杂化。这项工作将有助于解决这个问题，提供一个概念性的范例耦合系统的行为。这一建议的智力价值是分析一个可行的假设有关的耦合气候问题的年代际时间尺度。这项工作的更广泛影响在于在这一领域的两个领先机构（加州大学洛杉矶分校和佛罗里达州立大学）之间建立科学伙伴关系，通过出版物，研讨会和在国家和国际会议上的演讲广泛传播我们的工作成果，并解决气候预测中具有关键社会重要性的问题。