WCR: Quantifying the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Groundwater/Surfacewater Interactions in Regional Great Lakes Watersheds

土地利用和气候的变化都可能对水循环动态产生不利影响，但这些变化的潜在影响在区域流域很少被量化。PI‘s建议使用综合建模方法在重要的尺度上探索复杂的气候-陆地-水相互作用。他们拟议的研究将分别洞察气候和土地利用变化的影响，然后协同作用，对整个区域五大湖流域的水通量的时空变化产生影响。这些模型还将提供一个框架，以研究在分水岭尺度上控制地表水和地下水之间相互作用的复杂过程。高分辨率的径流测量和土地利用估算将限制基于过程的径流模型。将改进排入五大湖的两个试验性流域的试点模型，以预测水循环通量的空间和时间动态。这项拟议的工作具有很高的学术价值，因为很少有研究：(1)充分研究气候和土地利用对水动力学的相互作用；(2)完全集成三维地下水和地表水流动模型；(3)在过程模型框架中应用高分辨率径流数据来估计不同土地覆盖的补给率；(4)在实验流域尺度上建立土地-气候-水文相互作用的机制模型。拟议的工作将产生重大的更广泛的影响。首先，这些结果将有助于解释气候、土地利用和水循环之间的复杂关系，这些关系通常是由决策做出的。第二，将探索土地使用和气候变化的情景，为地方、州、地区和联邦机构提供信息。第三，拟议的教育活动将通过多学科环境为学生提供对重要的气候-陆地-水相互作用的广泛了解。最后，将向社区利益攸关方提供有关他们的行动如何影响水循环动态的信息。

0233648HyndmanChanges in land use and climate are both likely to adversely affect water cycle dynamics, however the potential impact of these changes are rarely quantified in regional watersheds. The PI's propose to explore complex climate-land-water interactions at scales that matter using an integrated modeling approach. Their proposed research will provide insight into the impacts of climate and land use changes separately, and then synergistically, on the spatial and temporal variation of water fluxes throughout regional Great Lakes watersheds. The models will also provide a framework to study the complex processes that control the interactions between surface water and groundwater at a watershed scale. High-resolution stream flow measurements and land use estimates will constrain process-based flow models. Pilot models of two experimental watersheds that drain into the Great Lakes will be refined to predict spatial and temporal dynamics of the water cycle fluxes. The proposed work has high intellectual merit because few studies have: (1) adequately addressed the interaction of climate and land use on water dynamics, (2) fully integrated three-dimensional groundwater and surface water flow models, (3) applied high-resolution stream flow data in a process model framework to estimate recharge rates for different land covers, and (4) developed mechanistic models of land-climate-hydrology interaction at the experimental watershed scale. The proposed work will have significant broader impacts. First, the results will help explain complex relationships between climate, land use and the water cycle at scales where decisions are commonly made. Second, scenarios of land use and climate change will be explored to provide information to local, state, regional and federal agencies. Third, the proposed education activities will provide students with a broad understanding of important climate-land-water interactions through a multidisciplinary environment. Finally, community stakeholders will be provided with information on how their actions impact water cycle dynamics.