Using Species Invasions to Test the Accuracy of Bioclimatic Models

科学家经常使用基于物种气候耐受性的模型（“生物气候模型”）来预测新引入的外来物种的传播，并预测物种的地理范围将如何应对气候变化。 尽管这些模型在概念上简单且广泛使用，但许多科学家反对生物气候模型，因为它们忽略了物种之间的相互作用（如捕食和竞争），物种的遗传结构，扩散，气候变量之间的复杂关系，以及与气候不平衡的范围。 尽管它们的重要性和潜在的缺陷，科学家们还没有评估生物气候模型的实际性能。我将使用欧洲和北美的外来物种传播的信息来测试生物气候模型的性能。 我将选择一个广泛的物种，已引入两大洲之间，并构建生物气候模型的基础上，每个物种在其本地范围内的分布。 然后，这些生物气候模型将被应用于预测每个物种在其被引入的大陆的范围。 预测范围将使用几种统计措施与实际范围进行比较，这将揭示生物气候模型的实际预测能力，并诊断可能的故障原因。

Scientists often use models based on the climatic tolerances of species ("bioclimatic models") to predict the spread of newly introduced exotic species and to predict how the geographic ranges of species will change in response to climate change. Although such models are conceptually simple and widely used, many scientists object to bioclimatic models because they ignore interactions between species (like predation and competition), the genetic structure of species, dispersal, complex relationships among climatic variables, and ranges that are not in equilibrium with climate. Despite their importance and potential flaws, scientists have not evaluated the actual performance of bioclimatic models.I will use information on the spread of exotic species in Europe and North America to test the performance of bioclimatic models. I will select a wide range of species that have been introduced between the two continents and construct bioclimatic models based on the distribution of each species in its native range. These bioclimatic models will then be applied to predict the range of each species in the continent to which it was introduced. The predicted range will be compared to the actual range using several statistical measures, which will reveal the actual predictive abilities of bioclimatic models and diagnose likely causes of failures.