BoCP-Design: Developing network-based models to evaluate functional biodiversity responses to climate change and species invasions

海洋生物群落包含多个物种，它们相互作用形成动态网络。这些网络深刻地影响着物种的共存和海洋生态系统的功能。气候变化和物种入侵在全球范围内威胁着这些网络。预测海洋群落如何应对这些变化是一项挑战，因为它们造成的干扰可能会以意想不到的方式影响相互交织的网络。此外，海洋生物可能会适应这些扰动。例如，它们可能会适应吃新物种，更好地抵御捕食者，或者更有效地从洋流中吸收营养。该项目将开发新的模型来预测环境变化如何影响生物体以及它们如何适应这些变化。这些模型将整合经验数据和世界上三个最具生产力的海岸的化石记录-加利福尼亚，智利和南非海岸。这些海洋生物群落的化石记录将为模型提供信息，说明这些群落如何应对数千年前的气候变化和物种入侵。该项目还将每年为早期职业科学家提供一次研讨会。该项目还通过科学多元文化视角促进中心支持多样性倡议。该项目将汇集来自网络生态学、海洋学、古生物学、进化论、理论生态学和社区生态学领域的科学家。他们将共同开发新的网络模型，以评估对气候变化和物种入侵的功能特性反应如何影响海洋生态系统对多种环境压力的抵抗力和恢复力。在生态时间尺度上，该项目将利用生物和物理变量的长期数据。在进化的时间尺度上，该项目将利用历史古生物学记录，这些记录显示了气候变化和物种入侵在塑造这些系统的功能生物多样性方面的作用的有力证据。这些模型将使科学界能够在生态和进化的时间尺度上测试功能性生物多样性如何响应从生物到生态系统水平的环境变化的假设。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Marine biological communities contain multiple species that interact to form dynamic networks. These networks profoundly shape the coexistence of species and function of marine ecosystems. Climate change and species invasions threaten these networks at planetary scales. Predicting how marine communities respond to these changes is challenging because the disturbances they cause can affect the interwoven networks in unexpected ways. In addition, marine organisms may adapt to those perturbations. For example, they may adapt to eat new species, be better defended from predators, or to assimilate nutrients more effectively from oceanic currents. This project will develop new models to predict how environmental changes influence organisms and how they adapt to those changes. These models will integrate empirical data and the fossil record of three of the most productive coasts in the world,- the Californian, Chilean, and South African coast. The fossil record of these marine communities will inform the models of how these communities responded to climate change and species invasions thousands of years ago. This project will also offer workshops for early career scientists once a year. This project also supports diversity initiatives through the Center for the Advancement of Multicultural Perspectives on Science.This project will bring together scientists from the fields of network ecology, oceanography, paleontology, evolution, theoretical ecology, and community ecology. Together, they will develop new network models to evaluate how functional-trait responses to climate change and species invasions may affect the resistance and resilience of marine ecosystems to multiple environmental stressors. At ecological timescales, this project will leverage long-term data of biological and physical variables. At evolutionary timescales, this project will leverage the historical paleontological record, which shows strong evidence of the role of climate change and species invasions in shaping the functional biodiversity of these systems. These models will allow the scientific community to test hypotheses on how functional biodiversity responds to environmental change from the organismal to the ecosystem level, at ecological and evolutionary timescales.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.