BoCP-Design: Developing network-based models to evaluate functional biodiversity responses to climate change and species invasions

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Marine biological communities contain multiple species that interact to form dynamic networks. These networks profoundly shape the coexistence of species and function of marine ecosystems. Climate change and species invasions threaten these networks at planetary scales. Predicting how marine communities respond to these changes is challenging because the disturbances they cause can affect the interwoven networks in unexpected ways. In addition, marine organisms may adapt to those perturbations. For example, they may adapt to eat new species, be better defended from predators, or to assimilate nutrients more effectively from oceanic currents. This project will develop new models to predict how environmental changes influence organisms and how they adapt to those changes. These models will integrate empirical data and the fossil record of three of the most productive coasts in the world,- the Californian, Chilean, and South African coast. The fossil record of these marine communities will inform the models of how these communities responded to climate change and species invasions thousands of years ago. This project will also offer workshops for early career scientists once a year. This project also supports diversity initiatives through the Center for the Advancement of Multicultural Perspectives on Science.This project will bring together scientists from the fields of network ecology, oceanography, paleontology, evolution, theoretical ecology, and community ecology. Together, they will develop new network models to evaluate how functional-trait responses to climate change and species invasions may affect the resistance and resilience of marine ecosystems to multiple environmental stressors. At ecological timescales, this project will leverage long-term data of biological and physical variables. At evolutionary timescales, this project will leverage the historical paleontological record, which shows strong evidence of the role of climate change and species invasions in shaping the functional biodiversity of these systems. These models will allow the scientific community to test hypotheses on how functional biodiversity responds to environmental change from the organismal to the ecosystem level, at ecological and evolutionary timescales.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.