Estimating and evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural macroeconomic models

估计和评估结构性宏观经济模型的预测准确性

• 批准号: DP0986718
• 负责人: Prof Valentyn Panchenko
• 金额: $ 7.28万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2009-01-01 至 2012-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0986718
• 关键词: Estimating; evaluating; predictive; accuracy; structural

This project will provide improved methods to inform Australia's macroeconomic policies and its strategies for economic development by suggesting the most adequate structural macroeconomic model for the Australian economy. Effective macroeconomic policies, in turn, assure stable economic development, smoothes effects of economic cycles and balances inflation, unemployment, the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. All these indicators are closely linked to the welfare of the Australian people and prosperity of the Australian economy. The importance of an accurate macroeconomic analysis is increased in the current condition of inflationary pressures, fiscal challenges, climate change, and world market instabilities.

该项目将提供更好的方法，通过为澳大利亚经济提出最适当的结构性宏观经济模型，为澳大利亚的宏观经济政策及其经济发展战略提供信息。有效的宏观经济政策反过来又能确保经济稳定发展，消除经济周期的影响，平衡通货膨胀、失业、汇率和其他宏观经济指标。所有这些指标都与澳大利亚人民的福利和澳大利亚经济的繁荣密切相关。在当前通货膨胀压力、财政挑战、气候变化和世界市场不稳定的情况下，准确的宏观经济分析更加重要。