The Transformation of Italian Democracy: Geographies of Party Replacement and Electoral Change in Italy, 1987-1996

意大利民主在1987年至1996年期间经历了戏剧性的转变，历史上根深蒂固的政党消失了，取而代之的是新的政党。 各种因素，如冷战的结束和对政府腐败的调查，促成了这一时期的许多政治变革。 然而，更深入的调查显示，意大利政党制度变革背后的许多代理人起源于地区、省和地方各级，并在这些层面上运作。 本研究探讨了这一时期意大利政党更替和选举变化的地理动态，以更好地了解政治变革的整体过程。 选举的变化往往被理解为零和游戏;一个政党或候选人的选票收益被视为以牺牲另一个政党或候选人为代价。 在美国民主制这样的两党制中，这种从选举到选举的变化被称为选票波动。 在像意大利这样的多党制中，选举的变化通常通过对政党之间选票流动的统计估计来理解。 这样的投票流估计往往是不准确的，因为它假设的变化是均匀的全国范围内，而事实上，这种变化可能会有很大的差异，从一个地方到另一个地方。 本研究采用地理理论视角，并使用空间分析来澄清和更好地理解选举和政党变化。 由于民主国家的政治行为并不统一，因此在完全理解为什么会发生这种变化之前，首先有必要确定选举变化在不同地方的不同表现。 从这个角度来看，选举变化的程度和变化的类型（例如，当一个政党取代另一个政党时，当一个政党分裂成两个或更多个新政党时，等等。在邻近的地理环境内和地理环境之间可能更加一致，因为选民可能对类似的政治信息作出反应，并经历类似的当地情况。 因此，通过识别和评估这样的地理环境来理解政治变革，比假设整个国家的变革水平和和谐的选民行为更合适。本研究通过详细说明政党衰落和变革的后果，从地理角度扩展了大量关于政党制度变革的文献。 通过确定政治变化是如何发生的，可以深入了解为什么会发生这种变化。 这些信息有助于了解老牌民主国家的政治变化，也可应用于新兴民主国家和转型民主国家。此外，该项目参与并促进当前关于地理在民主进程中的作用和意义的讨论。最后，通过实施和评估地理学和政治学领域的最新方法发展，这种对政治变革地理学的探索为研究生提供了建设性的研究和教育机会。

Italian democracy underwent a dramatic transformation between 1987 and 1996 as historically entrenched political parties disappeared and were replaced by new ones. A variety of factors, such as the end of the cold war and investigations into government corruption, contributed to the numerous political changes of the period. Closer investigation reveals, however, that many of the agents behind this party-system change in Italy originated and operated at regional, provincial and local levels. This research explores the geographical dynamics of party replacement and electoral change in Italy during this period in order to understand better the overall process of political change. Electoral change is often understood and framed in terms of a zero-sum game; vote gains for one party or candidate are viewed as coming at the expense of another. In two-party systems like American democracy, such changes from election to election are referred to as vote swings. In multiparty systems like Italy, electoral changes are often understood through the statistical estimation of the flow of votes between parties. Such vote-flow estimates are frequently inaccurate because it is assumed that changes are homogeneous nationwide, when in fact such changes may vary considerably from place to place. This research implements a geographic theoretical perspective and uses spatial analysis to clarify and better understand electoral and party change. Since political behavior is not uniform across a democracy, it is first necessary to determine how electoral changes are played out differently in different places before a complete understanding of why such changes occur can be obtained. From this viewpoint, levels of electoral change and types of change (e.g., when one party replaces another, when one party splits into two or more new parties, etc.) are likely to be more consistent within and between proximate geographic contexts because voters are probably responding to similar political messages and experiencing similar local circumstances. Understanding political change through the identification and evaluation of such geographic contexts, therefore, is more appropriate than assuming uniform levels of change and harmonious voter behaviors across a country as a whole.This research extends the large body of literature on party-system change by detailing the consequences of party decline and change using a geographic perspective. By identifying how political changes are played out, insights into why such change occurs are obtained. Such information is useful to understanding political change in established democracies, and can be applied to emerging and transitional democracies as well. Moreover, the project engages and stimulates current discussions about and the role and significance of geography within the democratic process. Finally, by implementing and evaluating recent methodological developments in the fields of geography and political science, this exploration into the geography of political change provides constructive research and educational opportunities for graduate students.