The Transformation of Italian Democracy: Geographies of Party Replacement and Electoral Change in Italy, 1987-1996

意大利民主的转型：意大利政党更替和选举变化的地域分布，1987-1996

• 批准号: 0322334
• 负责人: Michael Shin
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-08-01 至 2006-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0322334&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Transformation; Italian; Democracy; Geographies; Party

Italian democracy underwent a dramatic transformation between 1987 and 1996 as historically entrenched political parties disappeared and were replaced by new ones. A variety of factors, such as the end of the cold war and investigations into government corruption, contributed to the numerous political changes of the period. Closer investigation reveals, however, that many of the agents behind this party-system change in Italy originated and operated at regional, provincial and local levels. This research explores the geographical dynamics of party replacement and electoral change in Italy during this period in order to understand better the overall process of political change. Electoral change is often understood and framed in terms of a zero-sum game; vote gains for one party or candidate are viewed as coming at the expense of another. In two-party systems like American democracy, such changes from election to election are referred to as vote swings. In multiparty systems like Italy, electoral changes are often understood through the statistical estimation of the flow of votes between parties. Such vote-flow estimates are frequently inaccurate because it is assumed that changes are homogeneous nationwide, when in fact such changes may vary considerably from place to place. This research implements a geographic theoretical perspective and uses spatial analysis to clarify and better understand electoral and party change. Since political behavior is not uniform across a democracy, it is first necessary to determine how electoral changes are played out differently in different places before a complete understanding of why such changes occur can be obtained. From this viewpoint, levels of electoral change and types of change (e.g., when one party replaces another, when one party splits into two or more new parties, etc.) are likely to be more consistent within and between proximate geographic contexts because voters are probably responding to similar political messages and experiencing similar local circumstances. Understanding political change through the identification and evaluation of such geographic contexts, therefore, is more appropriate than assuming uniform levels of change and harmonious voter behaviors across a country as a whole.This research extends the large body of literature on party-system change by detailing the consequences of party decline and change using a geographic perspective. By identifying how political changes are played out, insights into why such change occurs are obtained. Such information is useful to understanding political change in established democracies, and can be applied to emerging and transitional democracies as well. Moreover, the project engages and stimulates current discussions about and the role and significance of geography within the democratic process. Finally, by implementing and evaluating recent methodological developments in the fields of geography and political science, this exploration into the geography of political change provides constructive research and educational opportunities for graduate students.

1987 年至 1996 年间，意大利民主制度经历了巨大转变，历史上根深蒂固的政党消失并被新政党取代。 冷战的结束和对政府腐败的调查等多种因素促成了这一时期的众多政治变革。 然而，更仔细的调查显示，意大利这场政党制度变革背后的许多推动者都是在地区、省和地方各级发起和运作的。 本研究探讨了这一时期意大利政党更替和选举变化的地理动态，以更好地了解政治变革的整体过程。 选举变革通常被理解为零和博弈；一个政党或候选人的选票增长被视为以牺牲另一政党或候选人的利益为代价。 在美国民主等两党制中，选举之间的这种变化被称为投票波动。 在意大利这样的多党制中，选举变化通常是通过对政党之间选票流向的统计估计来理解的。 这种投票流量的估计常常不准确，因为人们假设全国范围内的变化是同质的，而事实上，不同地方的变化可能有很大差异。 本研究采用地理理论视角，并利用空间分析来阐明和更好地理解选举和政党更迭。 由于民主国家的政治行为并不统一，因此首先有必要确定选举变化在不同地方的表现如何不同，然后才能完全理解为什么会发生这种变化。 从这个角度来看，选举变化的水平和变化的类型（例如，当一个政党取代另一个政党时，当一个政党分裂成两个或更多新政党时等）在邻近地理环境内和之间可能更加一致，因为选民可能会对相似的政治信息做出反应并经历相似的当地情况。 因此，通过识别和评估此类地理环境来理解政治变革，比假设整个国家的变革水平一致和选民行为和谐更为合适。这项研究通过从地理角度详细描述政党衰落和变革的后果，扩展了关于政党制度变革的大量文献。 通过确定政治变革是如何发生的，可以深入了解这种变革发生的原因。 此类信息有助于了解成熟民主国家的政治变革，也可应用于新兴和转型民主国家。此外，该项目还参与并激发了当前关于地理在民主进程中的作用和意义的讨论。最后，通过实施和评估地理学和政治学领域的最新方法论发展，对政治变革地理学的探索为研究生提供了建设性的研究和教育机会。