EID: Plague As a Model for Low Prevalence/epizootic Disease Dynamics

EID：鼠疫作为低流行率/流行病动态的模型

• 批准号: 0327052
• 负责人: Michael Antolin
• 金额: $ 124.5万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2009-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0327052&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EID; Plague; Model; Low; Prevalence

Outbreaks of infectious diseases in natural populations of plants and animals arise when variation in climate influences density of hosts, contact and disease transmission between hosts, and the size of insect populations that transmit disease. Within these broad patterns, how a disease changes from outbreak conditions to low-level persistence is unknown. Plague, a disease of rodents caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, provides an ideal opportunity for studying disease outbreaks interspersed within lulls when disease is almost undetectable. After its introduction into North America, plague has affected most rodent species west of the Great Plains. Black-tailed prairie dogs, burrowing rodents living in social colonies on grasslands, suffer high mortality during outbreaks. Long-term studies in Colorado show that plague outbreaks are more common during El Nino years. This project aims to determine whether plague persists in reservoir hosts (other rodents), remains at low levels within prairie dogs or their fleas, or only moves into grasslands from other habitats following weather-related increases in densities of other rodents. Routes of infection will be studied by trapping rodents and fleas, combined with genetic fingerprinting to identify plague foci. These data will provide values for models that explore disease persistence and transmission. Plague continues to be a human health concern; up to 3,000 worldwide cases are reported yearly. This research provides key information for minimizing disease incidence in the expanding populations of the western US. It is also part of long-term plague surveillance through the Shortgrass Steppe Long-Term Ecological Research project. Students from an urban, ethnically diverse undergraduate institution (Cal-State Fullerton) will gain unique experiences in field ecology, which increases the likelihood they will pursue careers in science.

当气候变化影响宿主的密度、宿主之间的接触和疾病传播以及传播疾病的昆虫种群的规模时，动植物自然种群中的传染病就会爆发。 在这些广泛的模式中，疾病如何从暴发状态转变为低水平的持续性尚不清楚。 鼠疫是一种由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起的啮齿动物疾病，它为研究疾病爆发提供了一个理想的机会，因为疾病几乎无法检测到。 鼠疫传入北美后，影响了大平原以西的大多数啮齿动物。 黑尾土拨鼠是生活在草原上的群居穴居啮齿动物，在疫情爆发期间死亡率很高。 在科罗拉多的长期研究表明，鼠疫爆发在厄尔尼诺年更常见。 该项目旨在确定鼠疫是否在水库宿主（其他啮齿动物）中持续存在，在草原犬鼠或其跳蚤中保持低水平，或仅在其他啮齿动物密度增加后从其他栖息地转移到草原。 将通过捕捉啮齿动物和跳蚤研究感染途径，并结合基因指纹识别以确定鼠疫疫源地。 这些数据将为探索疾病持续性和传播的模型提供价值。 鼠疫仍然是一个人类健康问题;全世界每年报告的病例多达3 000例。 这项研究为减少美国西部不断扩大的人口中的疾病发病率提供了关键信息。 这也是通过短草草原长期生态研究项目进行的长期鼠疫监测的一部分。 来自城市，种族多元化的本科院校（加州州立大学富勒顿分校）的学生将获得野外生态学的独特经验，这增加了他们追求科学事业的可能性。