Dynamics of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

北方夏季季节内振荡的动力学

• 批准号: 0329531
• 负责人: Bin Wang
• 金额: $ 45.22万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-10-01 至 2007-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0329531&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamics; Boreal; Summer; Intraseasonal; Oscillation

This project continues prior research to elucidate mechanisms responsible for the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Successful dynamical forecasts of this oscillation may bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. This study will examine the underlying physics controlling the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and attempt to understanding its relationship to air-sea interactions and summer mean precipitation. Attention will also be given to explaining why the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean is a preferred region for amplification of the intraseasonal oscillation. Both diagnostic and modeling studies are supplemented by long-term NCEP reanalysis data and high-resolution satellite data; these will be used to validate the multi-model ensemble simulations.The subject of the research is considered important by the community, and may lead to better medium-range forecasts and better forecasts of El Nino, while making a positive impact on poor countries which would benefit greatly from improved medium-range to seasonal forecasts. Based on the P.I.'s prolific publishing history, it is expected that the results of this research will be disseminated via meetings and publications in internationally-recognized scientific journals.

该项目继续先前的研究，以阐明负责热带季节振荡的机制，也称为Madden-Julian振荡。这种振荡的成功动态预测可能会弥合中范围的天气预报和季节性气候预测之间的差距。这项研究将检查控制北方夏季内振荡的潜在物理学，并试图理解其与空气相互作用和夏季平均降水的关系。还将注意解释为什么赤道东印度洋是放大季节内振荡的首选区域。长期NCEP重新分析数据和高分辨率卫星数据补充了诊断和建模研究。这些将用于验证多模型集合模拟。该研究的主题被社区视为重要，并可能导致更好的中等范围预测和对El Nino的更好的预测，同时对贫困国家产生积极影响，这些影响将从改善的中期预测中受益匪浅。根据P.I.多产的出版历史，预计这项研究的结果将通过国际认可的科学期刊的会议和出版物进行传播。