Dynamics of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

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This project continues prior research to elucidate mechanisms responsible for the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Successful dynamical forecasts of this oscillation may bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. This study will examine the underlying physics controlling the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and attempt to understanding its relationship to air-sea interactions and summer mean precipitation. Attention will also be given to explaining why the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean is a preferred region for amplification of the intraseasonal oscillation. Both diagnostic and modeling studies are supplemented by long-term NCEP reanalysis data and high-resolution satellite data; these will be used to validate the multi-model ensemble simulations.The subject of the research is considered important by the community, and may lead to better medium-range forecasts and better forecasts of El Nino, while making a positive impact on poor countries which would benefit greatly from improved medium-range to seasonal forecasts. Based on the P.I.'s prolific publishing history, it is expected that the results of this research will be disseminated via meetings and publications in internationally-recognized scientific journals.