Mitigation of Extreme Event Risks: The Case of Electric Power

“缓解极端事件风险：以电力为例”电力行业的风险管理因放松管制、竞争加剧和恐怖主义威胁而变得极为复杂。灾难中的电力故障可能会对电信、供水、交通和医院等其他关键基础设施系统产生连锁影响，从而产生地区性灾难。这项研究的目标是调查这些连锁影响的可能性，并确定有希望的缓解战略来遏制这些影响。这项研究将涉及三项密切相关的任务：制定影响图、脆弱性曲线和其他衡量连锁效应的措施；制定灾害情景，将这些影响置于特定灾害的背景下；以及通过基于专家的排名工作，确定有前景的缓解战略。需要应对的危险包括地震和严重的冬季风暴，以及洪水、干旱和恐怖主义。这项研究的重点是太平洋西北部。这项研究试图通过调查多个基础设施系统的相互作用影响，采用多风险视角，并汇集工程学和社会科学的专业知识，来扩大风险管理框架。通过培训和课程内容，该项目将使学生接触到多学科的研究。这项研究还将在美国和加拿大的研究机构之间建立新的研究伙伴关系。这项研究的好处包括缓解自然灾害和人为灾害中电力中断的潜在灾难性影响的战略。

"Mitigation of Extreme Event Risks: The Case of Electric Power" Risk management in the electric power industry has been greatly complicated by the advent of deregulation, increasing competition, and threats of terrorism. Electric power failures in a disaster have the potential to generate regional catastrophes through cascading effects on other critical infrastructure systems such as telecommunications, water, transportation, and hospitals. The objectives of this study are to investigate the potential for these cascading impacts and to identify promising mitigation strategies to contain them. The research will involve three closely linked tasks: development of influence diagrams, fragility curves, and other measures of cascading effects; development of disaster scenarios that set these effects within the context of specific hazards; and identification of promising mitigation strategies through an expert-based ranking exercise. The hazards to be addressed include earthquake and severe winter storm, as well as flood, drought, and terrorism. The study focuses on the Pacific Northwest. This study attempts to broaden risk management frameworks by investigating the interaction effects of multiple infrastructure systems, adopting a multi-hazard perspective, and bringing together expertise in engineering and the social sciences. Through training and course content, the project will expose students to multidisciplinary research. The study will also forge a new research partnership between U.S. and Canadian research institutions. Benefits of the research include mitigation strategies for addressing the potentially catastrophic effects of electric power disruption in natural and human-induced disasters.