Mitigation of Extreme Event Risks: The Case of Electric Power

缓解极端事件风险：电力案例

• 批准号: 0332002
• 负责人: Dorothy Reed
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0332002&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mitigation; Extreme; Event; Risks; Case

"Mitigation of Extreme Event Risks: The Case of Electric Power" Risk management in the electric power industry has been greatly complicated by the advent of deregulation, increasing competition, and threats of terrorism. Electric power failures in a disaster have the potential to generate regional catastrophes through cascading effects on other critical infrastructure systems such as telecommunications, water, transportation, and hospitals. The objectives of this study are to investigate the potential for these cascading impacts and to identify promising mitigation strategies to contain them. The research will involve three closely linked tasks: development of influence diagrams, fragility curves, and other measures of cascading effects; development of disaster scenarios that set these effects within the context of specific hazards; and identification of promising mitigation strategies through an expert-based ranking exercise. The hazards to be addressed include earthquake and severe winter storm, as well as flood, drought, and terrorism. The study focuses on the Pacific Northwest. This study attempts to broaden risk management frameworks by investigating the interaction effects of multiple infrastructure systems, adopting a multi-hazard perspective, and bringing together expertise in engineering and the social sciences. Through training and course content, the project will expose students to multidisciplinary research. The study will also forge a new research partnership between U.S. and Canadian research institutions. Benefits of the research include mitigation strategies for addressing the potentially catastrophic effects of electric power disruption in natural and human-induced disasters.

“缓解极端事件风险：以电力为例”由于放松管制、竞争加剧和恐怖主义威胁的出现，电力行业的风险管理变得非常复杂。灾难中的电力故障有可能通过对其他关键基础设施系统（如电信、水、交通和医院）的级联效应产生区域性灾难。本研究的目的是调查这些级联影响的可能性，并确定有希望的缓解战略来遏制这些影响。这项研究将涉及三个密切相关的任务：制定影响图、脆弱性曲线和其他级联效应措施；制定灾害情景，将这些影响置于具体危害的背景下；并通过基于专家的排名确定有希望的缓解战略。需要解决的危险包括地震和严重的冬季风暴，以及洪水、干旱和恐怖主义。这项研究的重点是太平洋西北地区。本研究试图通过调查多个基础设施系统的相互作用，采用多危害视角，并将工程和社会科学的专业知识结合起来，拓宽风险管理框架。通过培训和课程内容，该项目将使学生接触多学科研究。这项研究还将在美国和加拿大的研究机构之间建立新的研究伙伴关系。这项研究的好处包括制定缓解战略，以解决在自然灾害和人为灾害中电力中断可能造成的灾难性影响。