RAPID: Tracking and Deconstructing COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution as an Extreme Logistics Event

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This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) grant will document and investigate the deployment and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines as a large-scale complex extreme logistics event. Given the unique unprecedented scale, magnitude and urgency of this operation, and its fast-moving nature, it is imperative to document its development and deployment, and extract lessons for the planning, design and operation of future extreme logistical operations. Controlling the virus through vaccination will normalize economic and social life in the US and around the world, reopening vital local, regional, and international economies. Given the huge toll of lost lives, productivity and economic output, along with poor educational and mental health outcomes, it is imperative to take stock of the vaccine deployment process, extracting lessons for future extreme logistical operations including future pandemics, health threats, and responses to major natural and man-made disasters. This study will document in real-time the state of the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain, including vaccination rates over time, provide interim guidance for the latter portions of the continuing deployment process, and extract lessons learned and principles for the robust design and resilient operation of future extreme logistics deployments, including other health-related crises and disaster response situations. The study findings will help address questions about (1) the capacity of the US logistics system and overall biopharma supply chain to deliver vaccine at the desired scale and in the desired urgent time frame, (2) the time frames required to reach target vaccination levels, (3) the main vulnerabilities in the vaccine supply chain and distribution process, (4) resilience of the overall supply chain viz. disruptions due to various sources, (5) equity of the logistical processes in terms of reaching traditionally underserved populations, and (6) the value of real-time information in enhancing the robustness and resilience of extreme logistics processes and building public trust in these processes. This work will be further informed by an advisory board of experts and stakeholders engaged in the distribution process. The scientific significance arises from the unprecedented scale, urgency and complexity of the logistics processes, featuring (a) decisions made by multiple interacting agents from considerably different domains, (b) many sources of stochasticity and disruption potential, (c) strongly interacting network elements with potential for cascading failure, and (d) hierarchical processes featuring strong centralized control at upper levels with highly decentralized loose coupling at lower levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.