EITM: Distribution Networks, International Business Cycle, and the Dynamic of International Trade

EITM：分销网络、国际经济周期和国际贸易动态

• 批准号: 0339139
• 负责人: Nelson Mark
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-03-15 至 2009-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0339139&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EITM; Distribution; Networks; International; Business

While much progress has been made in the profession's understanding of international macroeconomic interdependence over the past decade, standard open economy models have failed to account for several prominent features of the data - issues that can be characterized as international business cycle puzzles and dynamic international trade puzzles. In the business-cycle dimension, standard international macroeconomic models cannot account for several stylized facts, now referred to as puzzles such as the Backus Smith puzzle (relative consumption is orthogonal to the real exchange rate), the consumption correlation puzzle (the correlation between home and foreign consumption is lower than the correlation between home and foreign output), and the price puzzle (relative prices across countries are much more volatile than output but almost as persistent). In the trade dimension, these same models cannot quantitatively account for the elasticity of trade volume with respect to world-wide tariff reductions and for the changing composition of the traded goods basket. This project is motivated by the failure of standard theoretical models to account for these properties of international business cycles and the growth in trade. The project develops a unified framework to study the international transmission of business cycles and the growth in trade over the past 40 years. It employs quantitative methods developed for business-cycle research - an approach that integrates theoretical and empirical research by combining formulation and solution of theoretical models of dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium economies calibrated using evidence on micro-foundations and empirical testing through model simulation. The project seeks to enhance our understanding of the role the distribution sector - an economically significant sector that has generally been ignored in international macroeconomic and trade research - in the workings of the macro economy in an international setting. The investigators have done some exploratory empirical work with a disaggregated trade data set and with a data set of scanner retail sales for the purpose of developing microeconomic evidence about the costs involved in establishing a distribution network and about the durability of these relationships. They have also done exploratory work with a prototype model. Extensions of the framework will be used first to investigate international business cycle implications. A continuation of the project will focus on the role of the distribution sector in understanding the pattern and volume of international trade and their response to trade liberalization associated with reductions in tariffs and nontariff barriers.Broader impacts: This new framework provides a better tool than standard models to study economic and welfare effects of changes in international macroeconomic and trade policy (e.g., periodic changes in tariffs and countervailing duties levied on subsets of goods) such as those embodied in NAFTA.

虽然在过去十年中，专业人士对国际宏观经济相互依存关系的理解取得了很大进展，但标准的开放经济模型未能解释数据的几个突出特征——这些问题可以被描述为国际商业周期难题和动态国际贸易难题。在经济周期维度上，标准的国际宏观经济模型无法解释几个模式化的事实，这些事实现在被称为巴克斯·史密斯之谜（相对消费与实际汇率正交）、消费相关之谜（国内外消费的相关性低于国内外产出的相关性）、还有价格之谜（各国之间的相对价格比产出波动更大，但几乎同样持久）。在贸易方面，这些相同的模型不能从数量上说明世界范围关税削减的贸易额弹性和贸易商品篮子组成的变化。标准理论模型未能解释国际商业周期和贸易增长的这些特性，这促使了本项目的开展。该项目建立了一个统一的框架来研究过去40年来商业周期的国际传播和贸易增长。它采用了为商业周期研究而开发的定量方法——一种将理论和实证研究结合起来的方法，将动态随机一般均衡经济的理论模型的制定和解决方案结合起来，利用微观基础上的证据进行校准，并通过模型模拟进行实证检验。该项目旨在增进我们对分销部门- -一个在国际宏观经济和贸易研究中普遍被忽视的重要经济部门- -在国际环境中宏观经济运作中的作用的了解。研究人员使用分类贸易数据集和扫描零售销售数据集进行了一些探索性的实证研究，目的是为建立分销网络所涉及的成本以及这些关系的持久性提供微观经济证据。他们还用一个原型模型进行了探索性工作。该框架的扩展将首先用于调查国际商业周期的影响。项目的继续将侧重于分销部门在了解国际贸易的形式和数量方面的作用及其对与减少关税和非关税壁垒有关的贸易自由化的反应。更广泛的影响：这个新框架提供了一个比标准模型更好的工具来研究国际宏观经济和贸易政策变化的经济和福利影响（例如，对商品子集征收的关税和反补贴税的周期性变化），如北美自由贸易协定所体现的那些变化。