Modeling the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System

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This project will test the hypothesis that a significant proportion of global decadal variability arises from variations within the tropical Pacific Ocean. An intermediate model of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system will be used to examine the predictability of the decadal climate shifts observed over the past 120 years. If successful, this technique will be extended to predict the onset of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.Broader Impacts:One graduate student will receive support from this project. The work is expected to enhance the education and training of up-and-coming scientists at Columbia University. The results are expected to benefit the scientific community and society in general by enhancing our understanding of climate variability on decadal timescales.