P2C2: North American Megadrought: Atmosphere-Ocean Forcing and Landscape Response from the Medieval Period to the Near-Term Greenhouse Future

P2C2：北美特大干旱：从中世纪到近期温室未来的大气-海洋强迫和景观响应

• 批准号: 0902716
• 负责人: Richard Seager
• 金额: $ 63.81万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0902716&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; North; American; Megadrought; Atmosphere

Funding is provided to investigate whether landscape and vegetation feedbacks played a role in creating the severity and persistence of Medieval megadroughts and if these feedbacks might also impact future anthropogenic-induced aridification. Specifically, the researchers will: 1) create new marine proxy-based reconstructions of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Medieval period and use these to force atmosphere models in an attempt to simulate the megadroughts. The resulting modeled climatology will then be used to force vegetation models to estimate vegetation change during the megadroughts. These estimates will be used to develop additional atmosphere model simulations (with an interactive dust module) that combine the impact of SSTs, removal of vegetation and expanded dust sources and aerosol loading. Other atmosphere model simulations will be forced with altered vegetation and dust source boundary conditions as estimated from paleoenvironmental data; 2) force vegetation models with projections of future climate (from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4) to determine changes in vegetation and dust sources that will be used as boundary conditions in additional simulations of future climate change; and 3) work to develop a fully coupled land surface-vegetation-dust module for inclusion in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model for use in additional simulations of SST-forced Medieval megadroughts and of future climate.The broader impacts involve supporting undergraduate and graduate students, supporting a new researcher, and contributing to the understanding of climate-related drought. This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).

提供资金调查景观和植被反馈是否发挥了作用，创造中世纪特大干旱的严重性和持久性，如果这些反馈也可能影响未来的干旱化。具体来说，研究人员将：1）创建新的基于海洋代理的中世纪时期热带海面温度（SST）重建，并使用这些来迫使大气模型试图模拟特大干旱。由此产生的模拟气候学将被用来迫使植被模型估计在特大干旱期间的植被变化。这些估计将用于开发额外的大气模型模拟（带有交互式沙尘模块），该模型模拟将SST的影响、植被的去除、扩大的沙尘源和气溶胶负载结合起来，联合收割机。根据古环境数据估计，其他大气模型模拟将强制改变植被和沙尘源边界条件; 2）强制植被模型预测未来气候（摘自政府间气候变化专门委员会评估报告4），以确定植被和粉尘源的变化，这些变化将在未来气候变化的额外模拟中用作边界条件;和3）努力开发一个完全耦合的地表-植被-灰尘模块，以纳入戈达德空间研究所（GISS）模型，用于对SST强迫的中世纪特大干旱和未来气候进行额外模拟。更广泛的影响包括支持本科生和研究生，支持新研究人员，并为了解与气候相关的干旱做出贡献。 该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。