Cyclone Structure Characterization and Evolution Forecasting Using Cluster Analysis and Statistical-Dynamical Modeling
Cyclone Structure Characterization and Evolution Forecasting Using Cluster Analysis and Statistical-Dynamical Modeling
批准号:
0351926
负责人:
Jenni Evans
金额:
$46.93万
依托单位国家:
美国
项目类别:
Continuing Grant
财政年份:
2004
资助国家:
美国
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2004-03-15 至 2008-02-29
中文摘要
PI试图通过三种方式深入了解气旋结构演变的动力学:一是通过将最近开发的气旋相空间诊断扩展到所有气旋结构演变来检测和表示低维特征;第二是使用聚类分析作为辅助确定气旋相空间内结构演变的优选路径;第三是将开发基于回归的基于简化预报器集的统计预报模型。此外,将根据气旋相空间诊断和利用卫星观测对气旋相空间进行诊断,对这些模型进行验证,以求在某种程度上衡量目前大气气旋运行模式的不确定性。
英文摘要
The PIs seek to gain insights into the dynamics of cyclone structure evolution in three ways: one is the detection and representation of lower-dimensional features by extending the recently developed cyclone phase space diagnostic to all cyclone structure evolutions; the second uses cluster analysis as an aid in defining preferred paths of structural evolution within the cyclone phase space; in the third a regression based statistical dynamical forecast model based on a reduced predictor set will be developed. In addition, some measure of the uncertainty in present operational models for atmospheric cyclones will be sought through a validation of these models based on cyclone phase space diagnostics against their own analyses and a cyclone phase space diagnostic using satellite-derived observations.
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会议论文
Structural Evolution Through the Lifecycle of Hurricane Sandy (2012)
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批准号:1322532
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$34.25万
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财政年份:2013
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负责人:Jenni Evans
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依托单位:
T-PARC: Ensemble Simulation and Clustering of the Evolving Cyclone Structure Through Extratropical Transition (ET)
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批准号:0735973
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$47.54万
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财政年份:2007
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负责人:Jenni Evans
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依托单位:
Collaborative Research: Extratropical Transition of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: An Examination of the Factors Influencing Transition and Post-Transition Intensity Change
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批准号:9911212
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$16.09万
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财政年份:2000
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负责人:Jenni Evans
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依托单位:
Tropical Convection and the General Circulation
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批准号:9508085
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$15.23万
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财政年份:1995
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负责人:Jenni Evans
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依托单位:
海外基金