Structural Evolution Through the Lifecycle of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

2012年的飓风“桑迪”给数千万美国公民带来了毁灭性的影响。在这种制度的道路上，保护居民的生命和财产是必要的；这需要理解系统背后的物理原理，并根据这些知识采取行动。对桑迪演变的物理理解的发展为未来类似系统的预测和对这些事件的适当社会反应提供了知识基础。分析观测到的沙质生命周期对各种贡献系统和环境因子特征的敏感性有助于约束和完善这一认识。这里采用的方法将是集合预报的聚类分析和相关的灵敏度模拟。智力价值：本研究集中于对飓风桑迪（2012）的生命周期和登陆的演变进行详细分析，并利用集合预测来探索可能最终出现的替代生命周期的现实范围。据推测，飓风桑迪在登陆前经历了温暖的隔离，导致美国东北部的重要天气分布不典型。研究了飓风桑迪、阻塞高压和上游槽、残余热带风暴托尼以及地面通量和摩擦的相对作用，并进行了集合诊断和灵敏度模拟。点聚类将用于评价模拟沙质构造演化的模型能力。路径聚类提供了在整个预测期内演化相似的集合的子群。在客观衍生的集合成员亚群中对备选风暴演变的分析提供了对不同风暴和环境特征的相对重要性的见解。这些可以通过使用天气和研究预报（WRF）模式的敏感性研究来进一步检验。更广泛的影响：阐明导致桑迪演变的过程将对这些系统的理论认识、预测领域和社会恢复力规划产生广泛的影响。各级学生的专业发展将产生更广泛的影响。PI作为WMO IWTC-VIII联合主席的角色将通过加强国际预报员/研究人员的沟通，提高社区对热带气旋的了解，产生更广泛的影响。

Hurricane Sandy (2012) wrought devastating impacts on tens of millions of U.S. citizens. Protection of the lives and property of residents along the path of such a system is imperative; this requires understanding the physics underlying the system and being equipped to act on that knowledge. Development of physical understanding of the evolution of Sandy provides the knowledge to underpin future forecasts of similar systems and appropriate societal responses to those events. Analysis of the sensitivity of the observed Sandy lifecycle to the characteristics of the various contributing systems and environmental factors helps to constrain and refine this understanding. Methodologies employed here will be cluster analysis of the ensemble forecasts and related sensitivity simulations.Intellectual Merit: This research centers on a detailed analysis of the evolution of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through its lifecycle and landfall, and on exploiting ensemble forecasts to explore the realistic range of alternative lifecycles that could have eventuated. It is hypothesized that Hurricane Sandy underwent a warm seclusion near landfall, resulting in an atypical distribution of significant weather over the US northeast. The relative roles of Hurricane Sandy, the blocking high and upstream trough, the remnant Tropical Storm Tony, as well as surface fluxes and friction will be examined and the ensemble diagnostics and sensitivity simulations will be conducted. Point clustering will be used to evaluate the model skill in simulating the structural evolution of Sandy. Path clustering provides sub-groups from the ensembles whose evolution is similar over the entire forecast period. Analyses of alternative storm evolutions within objectively-derived subgroups of the ensemble members provide insight into the relative importance of different storm and environment characteristics. These can be further tested through sensitivity studies using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Broader Impacts: Elucidating the processes leading to the evolution of Sandy will have broad impacts in the theoretical understanding of these systems, in forecasting sphere, and in societal resilience planning.The professional development of students at all levels will have broader impacts. The PI's role as co-chair of the WMO IWTC-VIII will have broader impacts through enhanced international forecaster/researcher communications, improving community understanding of tropical cyclones.