Structural Evolution Through the Lifecycle of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

飓风桑迪生命周期中的结构演变 (2012)

• 批准号: 1322532
• 负责人: Jenni Evans
• 金额: $ 34.25万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-07-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1322532&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Structural; Evolution; Through; Lifecycle; Hurricane

Hurricane Sandy (2012) wrought devastating impacts on tens of millions of U.S. citizens. Protection of the lives and property of residents along the path of such a system is imperative; this requires understanding the physics underlying the system and being equipped to act on that knowledge. Development of physical understanding of the evolution of Sandy provides the knowledge to underpin future forecasts of similar systems and appropriate societal responses to those events. Analysis of the sensitivity of the observed Sandy lifecycle to the characteristics of the various contributing systems and environmental factors helps to constrain and refine this understanding. Methodologies employed here will be cluster analysis of the ensemble forecasts and related sensitivity simulations.Intellectual Merit: This research centers on a detailed analysis of the evolution of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through its lifecycle and landfall, and on exploiting ensemble forecasts to explore the realistic range of alternative lifecycles that could have eventuated. It is hypothesized that Hurricane Sandy underwent a warm seclusion near landfall, resulting in an atypical distribution of significant weather over the US northeast. The relative roles of Hurricane Sandy, the blocking high and upstream trough, the remnant Tropical Storm Tony, as well as surface fluxes and friction will be examined and the ensemble diagnostics and sensitivity simulations will be conducted. Point clustering will be used to evaluate the model skill in simulating the structural evolution of Sandy. Path clustering provides sub-groups from the ensembles whose evolution is similar over the entire forecast period. Analyses of alternative storm evolutions within objectively-derived subgroups of the ensemble members provide insight into the relative importance of different storm and environment characteristics. These can be further tested through sensitivity studies using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Broader Impacts: Elucidating the processes leading to the evolution of Sandy will have broad impacts in the theoretical understanding of these systems, in forecasting sphere, and in societal resilience planning.The professional development of students at all levels will have broader impacts. The PI's role as co-chair of the WMO IWTC-VIII will have broader impacts through enhanced international forecaster/researcher communications, improving community understanding of tropical cyclones.

飓风桑迪(2012)对数千万美国公民造成了毁灭性的影响。保护这一系统沿途居民的生命和财产是当务之急；这需要了解该系统的物理基础，并具备根据这一知识采取行动的能力。对桑迪演变的物理理解的发展提供了知识，以支持对类似系统的未来预测和对这些事件的适当社会反应。分析观测到的沙尘生命周期对各种成因系统和环境因素特征的敏感性，有助于限制和完善这一理解。这里使用的方法将是集合预报的聚类分析和相关的敏感性模拟。智力优势：这项研究的中心是详细分析飓风桑迪(2012)在其生命周期和登陆过程中的演变，并利用集合预报来探索可能出现的替代生命周期的现实范围。据推测，飓风桑迪在登陆附近经历了一次温暖的隐居，导致美国东北部地区显著天气的非典型分布。将研究飓风桑迪、阻塞高压和上游槽、残余热带风暴托尼以及地面通量和摩擦的相对作用，并进行集合诊断和敏感性模拟。用点聚类法评价模型模拟沙地构造演化的能力。路径聚类提供了在整个预测期内演化相似的集合中的子组。对总体成员中客观派生的子组内的替代风暴演变的分析，有助于洞察不同风暴和环境特征的相对重要性。这些可以通过使用天气和研究预报(WRF)模型的敏感性研究来进一步测试。更广泛的影响：阐明导致桑迪进化的过程将对这些系统的理论理解、预测领域和社会复原力规划产生广泛的影响。各级学生的专业发展将产生更广泛的影响。国际气象组织第八届国际热带气旋中心联席主席的角色将通过加强国际预报员/研究人员的交流，增进社区对热带气旋的了解，产生更广泛的影响。