Reliability of Electric Power Network and Grid

2003年8月14日，美国中西部、东北部和加拿大南部的10多个州发生了覆盖1万平方英里的大规模停电，涉及5000万人。纽约大都会等一些主要人口中心受到严重影响，造成人们的不便和各种痛苦，同时电力恢复工作逐渐见效。正如许多人怀疑的那样，这场灾难可能是由于夏季高温下电力需求过大的情况下，关键电力部件发生故障所致。然而，可能需要一些时间来确定这场美国历史上最严重的停电的确切原因。这项探索性研究的目标是获取并存档与停电有关的潜在易逝去的数据。我们特别感兴趣的是停电是如何在整个电网中启动和级联的。将收集的数据将跨越机械、电气和社会经济影响的范围，重点是电网可靠性评估所需的数据。这项拟议研究的PI广泛研究了公用事业网络和电网的可靠性，以抵御可能发生类似停电的地震条件。在这些研究中，涉及洛杉矶水电部(LADWP.s)和孟菲斯光、气和水(MLGWP.s)系统的传输网络和电网被用作活实验室。这些研究基于潮流的分析模拟，使用电力研究所的交互潮流(IPFlow)程序，这是行业标准，用于真实评估西方电力协调委员会(WECC.s)电网和孟菲斯输电网络的性能。最初，研究的动机是1996年8月在俄勒冈州发生的一起事故，当时阿特里接触到高压架空电力线的一段，使其传输能力失效。其结果是几个州和城市发生了大范围的停电，包括洛杉矶的部分地区。事实上，研究表明，局部扰动和不稳定几乎可以瞬间传播到遥远的偏远地区。从国土安全的角度来看，这项研究在9·11惨剧发生后变得更加重要，而且自2003年8月14日停电以来又增加了一层相关性。这是因为残疾可能是人为的、意外的或恶意的，并立即对直接受影响地区的社会经济福利和长期的国家经济福利造成毁灭性的负面影响。PI.的经验和专业知识在确定必不可少的数据方面发挥了关键作用，因此应该收集这些数据，以便随后对物理部件、公用事业网络和电网进行可靠性分析。由于公用事业组织对紧急情况的准备，无论是单独的还是合作的，对于最大限度地减少停电的后果至关重要，数据将包括实施的组织响应过程的记录。此外，需要数据来记录交通、水和其他生命线系统以及商业/工业部门在电力供应中断情况下的表现。估计的经济损失将随着更多信息的出现而更新，尽管估计将在事件发生后的第一年内做出一些推测。这项研究的广泛影响是，它将有助于预测系统分析方法和保护对策的重大科学进步，它将使数千万公用事业系统客户以及地方、地区和国家经济受益。从教育角度来看，该研究项目确实有利于培养和鼓励初级研究人员对研究人才明显不足的电力相关研究产生更大的兴趣。

Large-scale power outages occurred on August 14, 2003 covering a 10,000 square-milearea involving 50 million people in more than 10 states in Midwest and northeastern part of thisnation and southern Canada. A number of major centers of population such as MetropolitanNew York were impacted severely causing human inconvenience and miseries of all kind whilepower recovery effort gradually took effect. The disaster may have been caused by, as manysuspected, malfunction of a critical power component under excessive power demand in thesummer heat. It might take some time, however, to identify the exact cause of this worst powerblackout in the history of USA.The objective of this exploratory research is to acquire and archive potentially perishabledata related to the outages. We are particularly interested in the way in which the outage initiatedand cascaded throughout the power grids. The data to be collected will span a spectrum ofmechanical, electrical and socio-economic impact with significant emphasis on the data that areneeded for grid reliability evaluation.PI of this proposed research studied extensively on reliability of utility networks andpower grids to resist seismic conditions under which similar outages could happen. In thesestudies, transmission networks and grids, involving Los Angels Department of Water andPower.s (LADWP.s) and Memphis Light, Gas, and Water.s (MLGWP.s) systems were used asliving laboratories. These studies were based upon the analytical simulation of power flow, usingElectric Power Research Institute.s Interactive Power Flow (IPFlow) code, which is the industrystandard, for realistic performance evaluation of Western Electric Coordinating Council.s(WECC.s) power grid and of Memphis transmission network.Initially, the study was motivated by an accident in August 1996 in Oregon, in which atree came into contact with a segment of a high-voltage aerial power line, disabling itstransmission capability. The result was a wide-spread blackout in several states and cities,including part of Los Angeles. In fact, the research demonstrated that a local disturbance andinstability can propagate almost instantly far away to remote locations. The research becamemore seriously significant after the tragic September 11 event from homeland security point ofview and has just added another layer of relevance since the August 14, 2003 power outage.This is because disablement can be man-made, accidental or malicious, and cause a devastatinglynegative impact on socio-economic welfare of the directly affected regions immediately and ofthe nation in the long run.PI.s experience and expertise plays a crucial role in identifying the data that areindispensable and therefore should be collected for the ensuing reliability analysis of the physicalcomponents, utility networks and power grids. Since the preparedness for the emergency of theutility organizations, individually and in collaboration, is critical in minimizing the consequenceof outages, the data will include the record of implemented organizational response processes.Beyond these, data are needed to record how transportation, water and other lifeline systems andbusiness/industrial sectors behaved under the interruption of power supply. The estimatedeconomic losses will be updated as more information emerges, although the estimation will besomewhat speculative within the first year after the event.Broader Impact of this research is that it will contribute to significant scientific advancesin predictive systems analysis methods and protective countermeasures, and it will benefit tens ofmillions of customers of the utility systems, and local, regional and national economy.Pedagogically the research project is truly beneficial in training and encouraging juniorresearchers to become more interested in the electric power related research where lack ofresearch talents has been conspicuous.