Reliability of Electric Power Network and Grid

2003年8月14日发生了大规模停电，覆盖了美国中西部、东北部和加拿大南部10多个州的10000平方英里面积，涉及5000万人。一些主要的人口中心，如纽约大都会受到严重影响，给人们带来了不便和各种痛苦，而电力恢复工作逐渐生效。正如许多人所怀疑的那样，这场灾难可能是由一个关键的电力部件在夏季高温下电力需求过大的情况下发生故障造成的。然而，要确定美国历史上最严重的停电的确切原因可能需要一些时间。这项探索性研究的目的是获取和存档与中断相关的潜在易损数据。我们特别感兴趣的是停电是如何开始的，并在整个电网中串联起来的。收集的数据将跨越机械、电气和社会经济影响的范围，重点是电网可靠性评估所需的数据。本研究的PI广泛研究了公用事业网络和电网的可靠性，以抵御可能发生类似停电的地震条件。在这些研究中，输电网络和电网，涉及到洛杉矶水电局。s （LADWP.s）和Memphis Light， Gas, and Water。s （MLGWP.s）系统用作活体实验室。这些研究是基于电力研究所对潮流的分析模拟。美国西部电力协调委员会（WECC）制定的交互式潮流（IPFlow）规范是对西部电力协调委员会实际性能进行评估的行业标准。5)电网和孟菲斯输电网。最初，这项研究的动机是1996年8月在俄勒冈州发生的一起事故，在这起事故中，一棵树接触到一段高压架空电力线，使其输电能力丧失。结果导致包括洛杉矶部分地区在内的几个州和城市大面积停电。事实上，研究表明，局部扰动和不稳定几乎可以瞬间传播到遥远的地方。从国土安全的角度来看，这项研究在911悲剧事件之后变得更加重要，而在2003年8月14日的停电事件之后，这项研究又增加了一层相关性。这是因为残疾可能是人为的，意外的或恶意的，并对直接受影响地区的社会经济福利造成毁灭性的负面影响，从长远来看，pi的经验和专业知识在确定必不可少的数据方面起着至关重要的作用，因此应该为随后的物理组件，公用事业网络和电网的可靠性分析收集这些数据。由于公用事业组织的应急准备（单独或协作）对于尽量减少停电后果至关重要，因此数据将包括已实施的组织响应流程的记录。除此之外，还需要数据来记录交通、供水和其他生命线系统以及商业/工业部门在电力供应中断下的表现。随着更多信息的出现，对经济损失的估计将会更新，尽管在事件发生后的第一年里，这一估计将有些投机。本研究的广泛影响是，它将有助于预测系统分析方法和保护对策的重大科学进步，并将使数以千万计的公用事业系统客户以及地方，区域和国家经济受益。在教学方面，该研究项目确实有利于培养和鼓励青年研究人员对电力相关研究的兴趣，而电力相关研究人才的缺乏是显而易见的。

Large-scale power outages occurred on August 14, 2003 covering a 10,000 square-milearea involving 50 million people in more than 10 states in Midwest and northeastern part of thisnation and southern Canada. A number of major centers of population such as MetropolitanNew York were impacted severely causing human inconvenience and miseries of all kind whilepower recovery effort gradually took effect. The disaster may have been caused by, as manysuspected, malfunction of a critical power component under excessive power demand in thesummer heat. It might take some time, however, to identify the exact cause of this worst powerblackout in the history of USA.The objective of this exploratory research is to acquire and archive potentially perishabledata related to the outages. We are particularly interested in the way in which the outage initiatedand cascaded throughout the power grids. The data to be collected will span a spectrum ofmechanical, electrical and socio-economic impact with significant emphasis on the data that areneeded for grid reliability evaluation.PI of this proposed research studied extensively on reliability of utility networks andpower grids to resist seismic conditions under which similar outages could happen. In thesestudies, transmission networks and grids, involving Los Angels Department of Water andPower.s (LADWP.s) and Memphis Light, Gas, and Water.s (MLGWP.s) systems were used asliving laboratories. These studies were based upon the analytical simulation of power flow, usingElectric Power Research Institute.s Interactive Power Flow (IPFlow) code, which is the industrystandard, for realistic performance evaluation of Western Electric Coordinating Council.s(WECC.s) power grid and of Memphis transmission network.Initially, the study was motivated by an accident in August 1996 in Oregon, in which atree came into contact with a segment of a high-voltage aerial power line, disabling itstransmission capability. The result was a wide-spread blackout in several states and cities,including part of Los Angeles. In fact, the research demonstrated that a local disturbance andinstability can propagate almost instantly far away to remote locations. The research becamemore seriously significant after the tragic September 11 event from homeland security point ofview and has just added another layer of relevance since the August 14, 2003 power outage.This is because disablement can be man-made, accidental or malicious, and cause a devastatinglynegative impact on socio-economic welfare of the directly affected regions immediately and ofthe nation in the long run.PI.s experience and expertise plays a crucial role in identifying the data that areindispensable and therefore should be collected for the ensuing reliability analysis of the physicalcomponents, utility networks and power grids. Since the preparedness for the emergency of theutility organizations, individually and in collaboration, is critical in minimizing the consequenceof outages, the data will include the record of implemented organizational response processes.Beyond these, data are needed to record how transportation, water and other lifeline systems andbusiness/industrial sectors behaved under the interruption of power supply. The estimatedeconomic losses will be updated as more information emerges, although the estimation will besomewhat speculative within the first year after the event.Broader Impact of this research is that it will contribute to significant scientific advancesin predictive systems analysis methods and protective countermeasures, and it will benefit tens ofmillions of customers of the utility systems, and local, regional and national economy.Pedagogically the research project is truly beneficial in training and encouraging juniorresearchers to become more interested in the electric power related research where lack ofresearch talents has been conspicuous.